Bulgaria Country Report - May, 2015

June 11, 2015

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases for Bulgaria for the period from May 9, 2015 to June 10, 2015.

Moody's affirmed on June 5 Bulgaria's Baa2 government bond ratings with a stable outlook.

Bulgaria’s real GDP growth was confirmed at 2% y/y in Q1, matching a flash estimate released on May 13, according to seasonally-adjusted data of the statistics office. The EBRD has raised its 2015 GDP growth forecast for the country to 1% from 0.8% expected in January.

The business sentiment improved for the fifth consecutive month in May, with the business climate indicator rising 3.1 points m/m. Bulgaria's industrial production growth decelerated to 1.5% y/y in April from 2.6% y/y in March. Also on the negative side, annual retail sales growth (at constant prices) decelerated to 0.5% in April from 0.8% in March.

Key points:
• The consumer prices moved higher for the second month in a row in April, rising 0.5% y/y, following a 0.1% y/y increase in March
• Bulgaria’s consolidated budget showed a surplus of BGN1.07bn (€545mn) in January-April, reversing a deficit of BGN864.5mn in the same period of 2014
• The current account reported a surplus of €194.6mn in the first quarter, reversing a deficit of €146.9mn in the same period last year

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Macroeconomic Analysis
Politics Analysis
Industrial sectors and trade
FX, Financials and Capital Markets
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