The EIU projects Bulgaria's GDP to expand by 0.6% in 2013. The government will target a budget deficit of 1.8% of GDP in 2014, equal to BGN 1.47bn (EUR 750mn) in absolute terms. Real GDP growth is seen accelerating to 1.8% in 2014 from expected economic expansion of 0.6% in 2013. Consolidated budget deficit reached BGN 360.5mn (EUR 184.3mn) in the first nine months of 2013, equal to 0.45% of the full-year GDP projection.

Consumer price deflation deepened to 1.6% year on year in September from 0.7% in August. The decrease was largely due to administratively regulated price cuts and in particular the two reductions of the energy price. Producer prices on the domestic market decreased 3.5% year on year in September 2013. The overall business climate indicator decreased 2.1 points month on month in October 2013 after staying flat in the previous two months, pulled down by negative outlook in industry and services.

The calendar-adjusted industrial production index dropped 2.4% year on year in August, slowing from a 2.6% decline posted the month before. Retail sales (excl. autos) rose 4.9% year on year in August, up from revised 4.4% posted in July.

Unemployment was up 0.1pps month on month to 10.8% in September 2013. The socialist-led government had the lowest approval rating in October since its inauguration five months ago. Trust in the cabinet of PM Plamen Oresharski fell to 19% in October (from 23% the month before).