This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases for Bulgaria for the period since September 14, 2015.

Bulgaria's finance ministry raised on October 5 its 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2% from 1.4% projected in the spring, citing better-than-expected outcome in the first half of the year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for the country’s 2015 GDP growth to 1.7% in the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on October 6, from 1.2% projected in April.

Bulgaria's total business climate indicator decreased by 2.9 points m/m in September, after rising by 1.3 points m/m in August. The industrial production growth accelerated to 4.3% y/y in August from 3.4% y/y in July. The decline in the construction output narrowed to 0.4% y/y in August from 0.5% y/y the month before. The retail sales (at constant prices) fell 1.9% y/y in August, reversing a 0.1% y/y increase in July and posting their first decline since March 2013.


Key points:
• The CPI edged up 0.1% y/y in September after staying flat y/y in August
• Bulgaria's consolidated budget surplus was BGN627mn (€321mn) at end-September, equal to 0.7% of the projected 2015 GDP, the finance ministry said in a preliminary estimate
• The current account surplus widened to €675.6mn in January-July from €446mn in the same period of 2014