EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


This report reviews key macroeconomic data and microeconomic developments for Croatia published between October 7 and November 6, 2015.
In the beginning of November, the European Commission raised its 2015 growth forecast for Croatia’s economy to 1.1% from 0.3% projected in May. The growth should be supported by increasing external demand and a halt in the domestic demand contraction. The 2016 outlook was also revised up to 1.4% from 1.2% projected in the spring forecast.
The World Bank is less optimistic for this year, expecting 0.9% growth. However, the new forecast represents an improvement compared to the 0.5% growth projection made in June. The EBRD also upgraded this year’s growth forecast for Croatia to 0.9% from the previously projected 0.5%.
The Croatian central bank is the most optimistic, expecting 1.2% economic expansion in 2015. In July, it was expecting only 0.5% growth.
The report also provides details on the latest developments in the tender for the development of a LNG terminal on the Croatian island of Krk and reveals the results of an opinion poll ahead the general elections scheduled for November 8.
It also mentions Croatia’s ranking in the latest Doing Business Report of the World Bank.


Key Points:


• Croatia's consumer prices fell 0.8% y/y in September, after dropping 0.6% the previous month. The working-day adjusted industrial output rose 5.4%, speeding from 2.8% in August. The annual growth of the first nine months of the year reached 2.3% y/y.
• The unemployment increased to 16.2% in September from 15.9% in the previous two months. The average net monthly wage rose 4.2% in August, slowing from a 3.8% hike in July.
• January-August trade gap widened 0.5% y/y as exports rose at a faster pace than imports.
• Government debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 85.7% in the second quarter of the year from 87.7% in the previous quarter