This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from April 5 until May 5 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Montenegro during this period.
The EC and the IMF lifted their 2014 GDP growth forecasts for Montenegro to 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. Nonetheless, both projections remains considerably less optimistic than the government’s expectations for a 3.6%GDP expansion this year .
Montenegro’s CPI dropped for a third straight month in March, going down by 0.9% y/y after decreasing by 0.6% y/y the month before dragged down by down by a deeper decline of food, clothing and footwear and recreation and culture costs.
The unemployment rate inched down to 19.5% in 2013 from 19.7% a year ago, according to the 2013 Labour Force Survey (LFS) of the statistics office. The reading was helped by falling number of job seekers and a mild increase in the number of employees.
The industrial production swung to a 20.6% y/y contraction in March from a 5.7% y/y rise the month before as stronger decline of utilities production offset slower annual growth in mining and quarrying and manufacturing sector output.
In April, the Montenegrin parliament endorsed new fiscal rules which set a limit to the budget gap at 3% of GDP and to the public debt at 60% of GDP.
The budget deficit narrowed 18.8% y/y to EUR 49.2mn in January-March, as strong revenue growth offset a softer increase in expenditures, data from the finance ministry showed.
Net FDI inflow to Montenegro grew 76.1% y/y to EUR 45.9mn in January-February.