South Africa had not seen rolling power outages, locally called load shedding, in almost a year. Their sudden return, announced by the state-run power utility Eskom on January 31, has dashed people's hopes of putting years of rolling blackouts behind them.

Eskom previously attributed its success in providing uninterrupted power supply for over 10 months, a milestone last seen in June 2018, to its effective implementation of the generation recovery plan, as reported by NewBase.

However, Eskom encountered several breakdowns over the last week in January, necessitating extended repair times and the full use of its emergency reserves. The utility dealt with the crisis quickly and efficiently, ensuring a stable supply by February 2.

In the statement, Eskom group CEO Dan Marokane called the sudden reintroduction of load shedding “a potentially temporary setback.” He also claimed: “Load shedding is largely behind us due to the structural improvements in our generation fleet.”

The sentiment was shared by Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa who insisted that an end to load shedding was within reach.

“We are within touching distance of ending load shedding,” he said, as quoted by News24. The minister highlighted recent progress, including the return to service of the Koeberg nuclear power plant’s Unit 2 in December 2024. Additionally, the Kusile coal-fired power station’s Unit 6 was expected to be synchronised to the grid in February, and Medupi’s Unit 4 should be operational by March, Ramokgopa said. “If you put all of those together, it’s 2 500MW [in additional power generation],” he explained.

Ramokgopa also highlighted the ongoing restoration of Kusile’s smokestacks, chimneys that carry gasses. The collapse of one stack in October 2022 had taken three generation units offline, but temporary chimneys have allowed operations to resume while permanent repairs continue. According to the minister, full restoration of the affected units is expected between March and June.

“So once we finish all of those, myself and the chair [of Eskom, Mteto Nyati] will come out to the country and announce that we are confident that load shedding is behind us,” he said, adding that the grid would have sufficient capacity to absorb future breakdowns.

However, energy experts have cautioned that Eskom’s ageing power plants remain unreliable, meaning the risk of load shedding is far from eliminated.

Cresco analysis

A report by project finance advisory firm Cresco Group late last year highlighted an ongoing risk of load shedding in the medium term, particularly in February. Cresco’s analysis, based on Eskom data and actual private sector generation patterns, factors in seasonal demand. While numerous renewable projects are in development, load shedding risk remains largely tied to Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF).

Cresco executive director Robert Futter noted that February poses a greater risk because of high cooling-related electricity demand and increased industrial activity driven by lower seasonal energy costs. Additionally, Eskom typically schedules maintenance during this period, further straining supply.

This trend is expected to persist in the coming years. Cresco’s projections indicate continued load-shedding risks in the short to medium term as ageing power plants decline in performance. A significant improvement is only anticipated by 2029, when renewables are projected to account for about 30% of total generation, supported by large-scale battery storage to manage surplus daytime energy.

Right now, however, after nearly a year without load shedding and positive assurances from Eskom and the minister, a return to outages could harm economic stability, investor confidence, and public trust while highlighting ongoing weaknesses in Eskom’s ability to meet demand.

Expert opinions

Load shedding has been a highly sensitive issue in South Africa, with previous blackouts leading to public frustration and political pressure on the government. According to independent energy analyst and MD at EE Business Intelligence, Chris Yelland, there has definitely been a structural improvement in generation at Eskom.

“You can see it in the data, they've improved the performance of the plants. They’ve had [fewer] unplanned breakdowns, which has given them an opportunity to do more planned outages, in other words, more maintenance,” Yelland was quoted by News24 as saying.

“But the random nature of breakdowns can catch you out. The reality is that one cannot predict with any degree of confidence whether load shedding will happen,” he added.

Yelland explained that several unplanned breakdowns could happen simultaneously, tripping a number of generating units in close proximity, as happened before. “These things are happening simply because power plants are complicated and they've got a lot of mechanical parts, a lot of electrical protections, and these things can happen,” he said.

Just one day before alerting the public about the high risk of load shedding resumption, on January 30, Eskom reported a surge in profit for the six months ending September 2024. Also on the same day, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) approved Eskom’s electricity tariff increases for the next three years. The 2025/26 hike of 12.74% was far below Eskom’s requested 36.15%, which was deemed unaffordable by Ramokgopa, as reported by Engineering News.

According to Yelland, the subsequent announcement by Eskom of a return to load shedding was just a coincidence, albeit unfortunate. “I believe the system operator runs the system independently and free of manipulation. I think these are normal operating risks,” he stated.

However, Prof Anton Eberhard from the University of Cape Town does not support Yelland’s view. Eberhard, who specialises in power sector governance and regulatory reform, criticised the energy regulator’s processes, arguing that Eskom inflates its requests while NERSA adjusts figures to meet political expectations.

He pointed out deep cuts to Eskom’s generation depreciation, transmission investment, and exclusion of carbon tax and municipal debt recovery. Despite these concerns, he doubted Eskom would challenge the regulator’s decision owing to political pressure over electricity affordability.

“We need to move to a different regulatory regime for the separate businesses,” Eberhard stated, describing the current systems as broken, as cited by Engineering News.

Also, the return of load shedding could again trigger dissatisfaction among citizens and businesses, especially as they now face a tariff increase three times higher than inflation. Dealing with both rising electricity costs and ongoing power cuts adds to their struggles, increasing pressure on the government and Eskom’s leadership to stick to their promises of ending load shedding once and for all.