Negotiations with Russia over Ukraine may be the prelude to a much bigger nut to crack – Iran. That thought, as impossible as it may seem, appears to be the route the Trump administration could take to tackle the US’ longest-standing foreign policy conundrum, which has flummoxed successive administrations since the collapse of the Carter administration at the hands of Iranian revolutionaries. 

Moscow-based political analyst Malek Dudakov suggested that President Donald Trump's administration should seek Russian diplomatic assistance to facilitate dialogue with Iran as regional tensions escalate following recent US-Israeli security talks in Tel Aviv and a push by the Netanyahu government to put the squeeze on Tehran.

"If Trump approaches from a different angle and seeks Russia's support in negotiations with Tehran, some space for dialogue may open up," Dudakov told NEWS.ru on February 16. He said Russia could play "an important and even key role" if the US pursues a comprehensive Middle East agreement.

The Russia-Iran relationship, which has been boosted in recent years due to sanctions, provides Moscow with unique channels of communication that Western nations currently lack, and with Iran now well within Russia's sphere of influence, being admitted into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS as well as signing an agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the Kremlin's leverage beats that of Washington's maximum pressure. 

The Russian analyst suggests that Russia’s current good relations with Iran and its historical connection could prove crucial as the US sanctions regime against Iran has intensified under Trump's new term, despite internal administration divisions.

"There's a desire to start talks with Iran within Trump's administration, although hawks have already lobbied for tougher sanctions," Dudakov explained, highlighting the complex interplay between diplomatic outreach and economic pressure.

 “I seriously doubt that Trump will be able to achieve any concessions here. If Trump is interested in concluding a big deal on the Middle East, Russia can play an important and even key role.”

The dialogue proposal comes amid heightened regional tensions, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently presenting a unified stance against Iran's nuclear programme in Jerusalem. "Israel and America stand shoulder to shoulder in countering the threat of Iran," Netanyahu stated during their joint press briefing.

Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani previously characterised US approaches as confrontational, stating that "the US doesn't understand the language of diplomacy" and accusing Washington of attempting to engage from a position of force.

The timing coincides with Rubio's broader Middle East tour, which includes stops in Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Multiple nations maintain significant interests in the region's stability, with the European Union supporting the original nuclear deal framework, while China and Russia have strengthened their economic and military cooperation with Iran.

"A comprehensive Middle East agreement would require multiple stakeholders," Dudakov concluded, suggesting that Russia's diplomatic experience could prove vital in breaking the current impasse between Washington and Tehran.

The Russian analyst’s comments come as Israel continues to lobby the US to target Iran’s power structures, which Tel Aviv currently sees as severely weakened due to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in December and the death of the top Hezbollah commanders in its war with Israel.

"Israel and America stand shoulder to shoulder in countering the threat of Iran. We agree that the Ayatollahs must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said during a joint press briefing following their meeting on February 16.

Beyond Russia, Saudi Arabia is preparing to leverage its strong relationship with President Donald Trump to mediate negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear programme, CNN reported on February 16.

Saudi officials view the current regional landscape as a historic opportunity to reduce tensions with Iran, following their China-brokered normalisation agreement in March 2023. That deal has already yielded significant benefits for Riyadh, including the cessation of Houthi attacks on Saudi territory and protection from potential crossfire between Iran and Israel during recent conflicts.

"Saudi foreign policy, whilst based on a strategic partnership with the United States, has sought to diversify its options both regionally and internationally, allowing it to be flexible and pragmatic when necessary," Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told CNN.

This is while a senior European diplomat disclosed that the Trump administration is pursuing direct, confidential negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear programme, Al Arabiya reported on February 16.

The diplomatic revelation suggests Washington aims to reach an agreement with Iran before October 2025, when the current nuclear deal, signed in 2015 and abandoned by Trump in 2018, is set to expire.

"If any US administration can achieve an agreement with Iran, it would be the Trump administration," the senior European official told Al Arabiya.

The potential negotiations would extend beyond nuclear activities, according to the European diplomat, who said that Iranian officials would likely accept any agreement that includes sanctions relief.

"The weakness of Tehran's regional allies has created an environment conducive to a broader agreement, something unimaginable or unrealistic two years ago," the diplomat explained.