US President Donald Trump has confirmed that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will come into force in March, ending a month-long suspension on the planned taxes that were initially set to take effect in February.

"The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule," Trump stated during a White House news conference on February 24 alongside French President Emmanuel Macron.

The proposed measure includes a 25% tax on imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada, with Canadian energy products such as oil and electricity facing a lower 10% tariff.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, whose cool-headed approach has been widely praised, is pursuing multiple strategies to address the situation. According to various reports, Mexico is even considering imposing tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to appease Trump and reach an agreement with the United States, with a delegation of economy and finance ministries already in Washington exploring this option.

"We have to prioritise our commercial relationship with the US and we've asked the US to prioritise the USMCA," Sheinbaum said.

Despite Trump's firm stance, Sheinbaum remains optimistic about reaching an agreement before the deadline expires, whilst maintaining contingency plans that include retaliatory tariffs. With approximately 80% of Mexican exports destined for the US market, the stakes are particularly high for Mexico's trade-dependent economy.

"This deal has to be finalised this week," said Sheinbaum. "We're expecting to reach a deal with the United States."

The threatened tariffs represent a significant economic gamble for the Trump administration. While presented as leverage to address migration and drug trafficking concerns, these measures could backfire by disrupting critical North American supply chains established under USMCA and its predecessor NAFTA.

The Yale University Budget Lab estimates that Canadian and Mexican tariffs could reduce average US incomes by $1,170 to $1,245 annually—potentially undermining the very economic gains Trump promised his voters. The auto manufacturing sector appears particularly vulnerable given its reliance on cross-border component sourcing.

Meanwhile, US consumer confidence has already shown signs of deterioration, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index registering a 10% decline over the past month, partly due to tariff and inflation worries. This suggests markets are pricing in potential economic disruption rather than viewing the tariffs merely as temporary negotiating tactics.

Major US retailers like Walmart have long expressed concerns about market uncertainty, highlighting the potential for price increases that would directly impact American consumers—the very constituency Trump claims to be protecting through these measures.

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico appear to be part of a wider and more confrontational trade strategy. Trump has recently floated plans for "reciprocal" tariffs tailored to match import taxes charged by other countries, which could pave the way for a more complex and fragmented global trade environment.

"If somebody charges us, we charge them," Trump stated, signalling a transactional approach to international trade that prioritises bilateral deals over established multilateral frameworks such as the WTO.

This approach represents a significant departure from traditional Republican free-trade orthodoxy and raises serious questions about the future of global trade governance. By simultaneously challenging trade relationships with allies, such as the EU and the UK, and competitors alike, the administration risks isolating the United States economically at a time when global economic integration remains high.

Macron has warned against parallel trade conflicts, telling Fox News: "Come on. You cannot have a trade war with China and Europe at the same time."

During their joint press conference, the French leader advocated for "fair competition" in trade relations, pointing out the deep interconnection between American and European economies and calling for increased bilateral investment—a measured diplomatic response that acknowledges both shared interests and potential areas of tension.

"We don't need a trade war," Macron reiterated. "We need more prosperity together."

The coming days will be critical as negotiations intensify. Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard has indicated that technical communications between the US and Mexican governments have already accelerated, with teams exchanging complex databases to better understand the precise status of bilateral trade.

The fundamental question remains whether these levies represent a genuine, radical policy shift or primarily serve as negotiating leverage. The administration's willingness to delay implementation last month may suggest some flexibility, but Trump's public commitment to moving forward creates significant pressure for concessions from Canada and Mexico.

Should the tariffs take effect as scheduled, retaliatory measures would likely follow suit, potentially triggering a cycle of escalation across North America that could shatter decades of regional economic integration.