Syria needs at least 10 years to recover its pre-war economic levels even with strong growth, while current slow growth rates of 1.3% annually could extend recovery beyond 50 years, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) reported on February 21.

The 14-year conflict has erased nearly four decades of economic and social progress, with GDP falling from $61bn pre-war to less than $29bn today, according to the report titled "The Impact of the Conflict in Syria: A Devastated Economy, Pervasive Poverty and a Challenging Road Ahead".

Nine in 10 Syrians now live in poverty, while one in four is unemployed. Total GDP losses between 2011 and 2024 amount to $800bn, while per capita income has plunged 70% from $3,000 in 2010 to $850, below the national poverty line of $800 per year.

The energy sector faces severe disruption, with production down 80% and more than 70% of power stations and transmission lines destroyed, cutting national grid capacity by over three-quarters. Between 40% and 50% of children aged six to 15 are not attending school.

Healthcare services have deteriorated drastically, with one hospital bed now serving 3,000 people compared to 650 in 2010. Doctor availability has fallen from one per 700 people to one per 2,000 due to the widespread migration of medical professionals.

Over 6mn Syrians have sought refuge abroad while 7.2mn remain internally displaced. The report estimates reintegrating returning refugees could cost between $12bn and $24bn, based on support of $10,000-20,000 per family.

Water and sanitation infrastructure has deteriorated significantly, with more than 50% of treatment plants and sewerage systems damaged or non-functional. About 14mn Syrians lack adequate access to water and sanitation services.

The housing crisis remains severe, with 328,000 homes destroyed and one million damaged. Nearly 5.7mn people need shelter assistance, while informal settlements comprise 60% of urban housing.

"Restoring productivity to create jobs and reduce poverty, revitalising agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for basic services like healthcare, education and energy are essential for achieving a sustainable future," UNDP administrator Achim Steiner said.

The report outlines three recovery scenarios. At current growth rates, Syria would not regain 2010 GDP levels until 2080.

With 7.6% annual growth, recovery could take a decade. Reaching Syria's theoretical GDP without conflict would require 21.6% annual growth over 10 years.

Recovery priorities include rebuilding state institutions, strengthening social protection, restoring basic services and fostering private sector growth. However, international sanctions, limited financing access and reconstruction costs pose significant challenges.

The findings note that without accelerated growth and external assistance, Syria faces generational challenges in recovering from the conflict's economic impact.

Even under optimistic scenarios, reconstruction will require substantial international support alongside domestic reforms.

UN special envoy Geir Pedersen said the formation of a new inclusive government in March could help lift Western sanctions as Syria rebuilds, Al Watan reported.

"Having a new inclusive government on March 1 will help us lift the sanctions that Western countries imposed on Syria during Assad's rule," Pedersen told the Associated Press on February 20.

Pedersen said that President Ahmad al-Shara'a insisted the interim government would remain for only three months during their December meeting, though he informed him "the timetable was tight".

The envoy highlighted concern about the security vacuum following the dissolution of former military and security services.

Steiner said Syria's recovery requires long-term development investment alongside immediate humanitarian aid to build economic and social stability.

"Restoring productivity to create jobs and reduce poverty, revitalising agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for basic services like healthcare, education and energy are all essential for achieving a sustainable future, prosperity and peace," Steiner said.

The report said that “physical capital destruction is estimated at US$123.3bn”.