Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.2% y/y in 2024 after growing 5.1% y/y in 2023, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat), said on February 28.

In November, when TUIK released its 3Q24 data, bne IntelliNews noted: “Above 3% for 2024.”

It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.

TUIK also provided a 3.0% y/y figure for 4Q24 while revising its 3Q24 figure to 2.2% from the previously released 2.1%.

‘Exits technical recession’

In November, TUIK provided a 0.2% q/q official contraction rate for 3Q24 while updating the 2Q24 figure to a 0.2% q/q contraction from the previously stated 0.1% q/q growth.

As a result, the statistical institute did the job when it came to presenting a technical recession (negative official GDP growth figures in two consecutive quarters on a q/q basis). 

The finance industry sought a technical recession release as proof of the effectiveness of the Turkish government’s ongoing monetary tightening process.

For 4Q24, TUIK released a ‘strong’ 1.7% q/q growth figure while updating the 3Q24 figure to a 0.1% q/q contraction from the previously provided 0.2% q/q contraction.

As a result, Turkey says it has exited the technical recession with the 4Q24 GDP release.

The output gap turned negative (official GDP growth releases have fallen below potential growth, which could be simplified as long-term average growth) in 3Q24 and will remain there, governor Mehmet Karahan said on February 7, when Turkey’s central bank released its latest quarterly inflation report.

bne IntelliNews also noted: “On February 28, TUIK will release the 4Q data, which will most probably suggest that the country has exited the technical recession.”

Above 4% for 2025

In September, the Erdogan regime provided an official GDP growth release target of 4% y/y for 2025 in its new medium-term economic programme (OVP).

Given that Turkey’s government met the finance industry’s wishes by declaring a technical recession across 2Q24 and 3Q24, there is now no barrier to the Erdogan administration returning to its old habit of releasing some big bold numbers.

On May 30, TUIK will release its 1Q25 data.