Bulgaria’s Constitutional Court ruled on March 13 that 16 MPs in the current parliament are not elected legally and should be dismissed. 

The reshuffle puts at risk the ruling coalition formed by Gerb, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), There Are Such People (ITN) and DPS — Democracy, Rights and Freedoms (DPS-DPS), which will lose its majority.

After the October 2024 general election, the four had 126 out of 240 MPs. However, after the vote recount, Gerb and ITN will lose three MPs each, while BSP and DPS-DPS will lose one MP each.

At the end of February, the Constitutional Court ordered a full recount of votes from the October 27 snap general election, which was marred by multiple allegations of vote rigging. 

Video evidence showing electoral officials replacing ballots during the count, with the alleged frauds believed to have largely benefitted Gerb and Magnitsky-sanctioned politician Delyan Peevski’s DPS – New Beginning party

There was further controversy when the head of the Constitutional Court, Pavlina Panova, said on March 10 that the case had been sabotaged by the prosecution. 

This prompted three parties from the ruling coalition — Gerb, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and There are Such People (ITN) – as well as DPS – New Beginning one MP from the far-right pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party to back a declaration criticising the work of the Constitutional Court and accusing it of a lack of transparency. Nearly 60% of Bulgarians viewed the election as unfair. 

Thousands of people came out on the streets in Sofia and other cities on March 12 in protest agains what they, like Panova, said was an attempt to sabotage the recount. 

While Gerb and its partners are losing seats, the nationalist pro-Russian Greatness party is set to enter the parliament, as the Constitutional Court concluded that the party was deprived of 59 votes — giving it enough to pass the 4% threshold. The Central Election Commission is yet to calculate how many MPs the party will get.

In the last few days, DPS – New Beginning has stepped up its support for the Gerb-led coalition. However, while DPS-DPS — the other faction of the DPS party that split last summer — objects to that and is likely to pull out of the coalition.

Peevski has repeatedly said he will not allow the government to fall, but also that he wants to take power and become prime minister after a new snap vote.

However, while the coalition benefits from DPS – New Beginning’s support, Peevski is not welcome as an official partner — or as prime minister — due to the numerous corruption allegations against him.

Another possible partner is the far-right pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party, which has worked with Gerb in the past, though not officially.

It is unclear how Greatness, set to become the ninth formation in the fragmented parliament, will act. In the previous parliament, Greatness’ group quickly collapsed after a row over policy.