Estonia’s ruling Reform Party and Eesti 200, the ruling coalition’s minority partner, have decided to continue governing without the Social Democratic Party (SDE). 

This marks the end of the second Reform-Eesti 200-SDE coalition, which took office in July 2024 under Kristen Michal after Kaja Kallas stepped down to assume her EU role.

Following SDE’s removal, President Alar Karis formally dismissed its four ministers on March 11, a statement from the presidency said. 

The coalition now continues as a two-party government with Reform and Eesti 200, which hold a narrow majority of 52 seats in the Riigikogu (the unicameral parliament of Estonia).

SDE chairman Lauri Laanemets criticised the move, saying his party had been "thrown out" of the government and suggesting that Reform and Eesti 200 are shifting toward right-wing policies, ERR.ee reported on March 11.

As reported by bne IntelliNews, a SDE deputy chair said that the Estonian government was ‘collapsing’ due to Reform's poor ratings.

SDE is already planning its next moves, particularly as its departure alters the power balance in the Riigikogu.

One of the first major debates will be over constitutional amendments regarding voting rights, ERR.ee reported.

SDE remains committed to its proposal that non-citizen “grey passport” holders should retain voting rights in local elections, alongside Estonian, EU and Nato citizens. However, Reform and Eesti 200, as well as conservative parties Isamaa and EKRE are against the proposal, ERR.ee said.

Since constitutional amendments require a two-thirds majority in the 101-seat Riigikogu, SDE’s 14 votes leaving the coalition weakens Reform and Eesti 200’s ability to pass changes on their own.

Following the government collapse, EKRE leader Martin Helme noted that the opposition is now in a stronger position, increasing the risk of another government collapse.

Although Reform has not formally invited Isamaa to join the coalition, speculation remains that it may do so.

As reported by bne IntelliNews, Isamaa remains the top-rated party with 30.5% support.

With the local elections set for October, Estonia’s political landscape remains uncertain, and further instability could be on the horizon.