As high-stakes negotiations continue between the Trump administration and the Kremlin over a potential ceasefire or peace deal in Ukraine, middle-class Russian professionals and small business owners are looking ahead to some improvement in their working lives, through eased financial sanctions, greater economic opportunities and fewer travel restrictions.

But few are holding their breath. They are sceptical that bringing an end to Moscow’s war in Ukraine is as simple as Trump and his cabinet have suggested, and about how easily sanctions can be lifted and commercial and trade ties restored.

Trump enjoys a favourable reputation among many Russians, seen as a pragmatic businessman focused on results and money, in contrast to Democrats such as Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or Hillary Clinton, whom they view as ideologically anti-Russian. Many also appreciate what they see as his blunt approach to pursuing American interests without attempting to influence Russia’s internal politics – unlike past US presidents, who spoke about the need to spread democracy while merely serving American economic goals.

Still, few would disagree with the description that Trump is also a power-hungry narcissist. Many who support him say they would never want a Russian equivalent in charge, nor would they want to be Americans under his presidency. But they are Russian and he is the US president, fortunately.

“Trump is well received by many in Russia,” said Timur, the owner of a small eyewear retailer, with multiple locations in Moscow. “He hasn’t delivered much yet – for Russians, I mean. But his rhetoric gives hope that things could improve.”

Russians have a long history of adapting to drastic changes, and the economy has adjusted to wartime conditions and sanctions, outperforming many advanced economies in recent years. Small business owners like Timur have also found ways to cope. He circumvents foreign transaction difficulties through currency swaps with trusted friends – exchanging rubles for dollars to help fund his eyewear imports from China.

We’re speaking on the terrace of a café overlooking a Moscow street lined with boutiques. Many were once Western brands but have since been replaced by Russian and Chinese alternatives. At the top of the street stands a Vkusno i Tochka restaurant – the fast-food chain that took over McDonald’s Russian operations in 2022. At the time, the new owner said he had acquired it for a “symbolic fee.” Many Western companies faced similar exits, forced to sell their businesses at deep discounts due to government restrictions, exit taxes and capital controls.

Since then, many small local businesses have thrived. “Western brands left, competition decreased – especially in retail sectors like clothing, footwear, and eyewear,” Timur said.

However, tax hikes imposed last year have disproportionately affected smaller enterprises. Combined with high interest rates, growth has slowed. “It’s too early to say,” Timur noted. “My profit margins may decline. But at the same time, consumer prices are rising.”

A stronger ruble in recent weeks has provided some relief for importers like him, making it cheaper to pay Chinese manufacturers. The currency’s appreciation has been partly linked to improved US-Russia relations under Trump, raising expectations that sanctions may ease.

He remains “cautiously optimistic.” “There are positive signs in politics,” he said, adding that financial sanctions would likely be the first to go, which would boost the economy and reduce his costs.

Vladimir, whose business imports wholesale industrial goods, is also hopeful about the future. His company has grown over the past three years, though he attributes that to his own efforts rather than broader economic or political shifts. He too purchases from Chinese suppliers, having cut ties with two German ones in 2022.

Returning to something resembling pre-war normality “won’t be as simple as it looks on television,” he said.

He expects Trump to lift restrictions on SWIFT transactions, “because he wants everyone to use the dollar.” The US president has repeatedly stated his goal of maintaining the dollar as the dominant currency in global trade. Due to sanctions, Russia has increasingly settled transactions in local currencies with China and India, its primary trade partners in recent years, undermining the greenback’s role in this regard.

Vladimir is less optimistic about the resumption of direct flights to Europe and fewer visa difficulties there – key issues for frequent business and leisure travellers like him. Banned in 2022, these flights forced many Russians to use Turkey as a transit hub to get to Europe, or choose to vacation in Thailand and Egypt instead of France and Italy.

“Right now, Europe still does not want to engage,” he said, highlighting the growing rift between Washington’s stance towards Russia and that of its traditional European allies.

For Katya, a lawyer still employed by a Western firm maintaining a minimal presence in Russia, recent years have been less positive. Her firm assists Western and local companies operating in Russia, though client numbers have plummeted. She has stayed out of loyalty and the hope of a transfer to another branch abroad, one day. For more than a year after the war started, she spent all her time settling insurance claims relating to companies abruptly leaving Russia or cutting ties with local partners, rather than working on any new business.

“The business is effectively on hold – only the pharmaceutical sector is partially operational. Three years ago, we had 270 clients; now we have just 17,” she said.

Still, she believes most companies that exited Russia will eventually return. “And we’re ready to take them back as clients under nearly the same conditions,” she said.

As for sanctions, she believes economic fatigue will eventually erode restrictions. “The world is simply tired of losing money by keeping Russia on the blacklist,” she said, though she is unsure when they will be lifted. “Eventually, one by one, countries will end them.”

Sanctions are one thing. A lasting peace in Ukraine is another.

“I don’t know when the war will end,” she said. “I wish it had never begun.”