Opinion
Erdogan’s “missteps” have doomed him, argues Council on Foreign Relations analyst
Henri J Barkey describes the “flailing of a threatened, insecure, and imperiled man” who is “confronting mounting public fatigue” in Turkey with his presidency.
BERTRAND: ASEAN, GCC countries and China come together, forming the world’s largest economic bloc
China, the countries of South-East Asia (ASEAN) and the Arab states (GCC) just held a summit in Kuala Lumpur to forge what could become the world's largest economic bloc, covering everything from free trade agreements to de-dollarisation.
COMMENT: The Philippines – an Asian nation closer to the US than its regional neighbours
The Philippines is a bit of an oddball in Southeast Asia: a country economically tethered to the United States through deep-rooted historical, political and financial ties, yet it consistently ranks as one of the least democratic nations in Asia.
COMMENT: How Nepal and Bhutan navigate the India-China rivalry
While New Delhi flexes its military posture to signal resolve both to Beijing and Islamabad, neighbouring microstates like Nepal and Bhutan find themselves compelled to recalibrate their security interests and economic alignments.
BERTRAND: China, leading Asian countries, set up rival to International Court of Justice
China and a group of about 20 other countries (including Indonesia, Pakistan, Algeria and Serbia) are launching this week the "International Organization for Mediation" to rival the International Court of Justice.
COMMENT: Falling oil revenues and rising costs triple Russia’s budget deficit, but to a manageable 1.7% GDP
Russia has already spent more than a third of the planned budget expenditures for this year as costs in all three of the major spending categories – housing, social, and military – are up y/y.
BERTRAND: Indonesian President Prabowo hails China as the new moral leader of geopolitics
President Prabowo Subianto has hailed Indonesia’s deepening ties with China, calling it a “pillar of peace and prosperity” in the Southeast Asia region, in an implicit rebuke of Western “imperialism and colonialism.”
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BLOG: Efforts to tackle methane emissions continue, despite Trump’s regulatory rollback
Momentum behind improved methane monitoring, quantification and mitigation continues to build in the US – even without the same regulatory pressure.
COMMENT: Ranking the top 60 economies’ exposure to US tariffs
US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff hike on the EU has put the cat amongst the pigeons again. If he follows through then Europe, which is highly dependent on US trade, will be amongst the most damaged economies in the world.
MACRO ADVISORY: Mongolia rising, but critically linked to China
Three years ago, Mongolia was broke and facing a possible debt default. It suffered a big drop in the volume and value of copper and coal exports to China during 2020-2021. Now it is doing better, but its fate is tied to China.
COMMENT: Trump threat of 50% tariffs for Europe could crush already soggy German growth
President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union from June 1 has sharpened fears of a renewed transatlantic trade war, though many analysts see the move as a negotiating tactic rather than a concrete policy.
COMMENT: China’s debt-trap diplomacy - lessons from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and beyond
For the nations affected this results in economic dependence on China and often the surrender of strategic assets - or both.
COMMENT: Can the digital ruble free Russian from the SWIFT sanctions bind?
Russia's central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital ruble, is being positioned as a strategic tool to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and reduce reliance on the SWIFT international payment system.
ING: Poland’s economy off to a positive start in the second quarter
April data from industry and the labour market suggest an encouraging start to the second quarter in Poland. One data point does not make a trend though, but we see encouraging signs that the recovery has resumed.
COMMENT: A protracted Sino-US trade war is good news for Russia
The United States and China may have agreed to a temporary pause in their escalating tariff battle, but the underlying trade war shows no signs of abating. While markets remain wary of further shocks, one country – Russia – is the big winner.
HALLIGAN: Georgia on my mind — and China's too
Having long ignored the Caucasus region, China is now showing intense interest in developing Black Sea infrastructure, not least in Georgia. The West is pushing back.
COMMENT: China and Latin America forge ‘shared future’ as US wields coercive diplomacy
China hosted Latin American leaders at the China-CELAC Forum, pledging $9.2bn and deeper ties. As US influence fades, Beijing’s “shared future” vision gains ground, fueling a shift in global alliances and challenging Washington’s dominance.
PANNIER: Party in parliament declares itself Uzbekistan's opposition. Something to get excited about?
The country’s registered parties bicker, or pretend to bicker, but they’re all loyal to the president.
COMMENT: Amid shrinking civic space, will the EBRD still uphold its democratic mandate?
As the global Democracy Index recorded a historic low in 2024, institutions tasked with upholding democratic values are under increasing pressure to adapt.
COMMENT: Taiwan is playing with darkness by abandoning nuclear power
Japan has restarted many of its nuclear reactors, recognising their role in energy security and climate targets. South Korea has also reinstated nuclear as a core component of its energy strategy. Taiwan, by contrast, is marching backwards.