Romania’s economy expanded by 0.9% year on year in 2024 (chart), after posting a 0.7% y/y increase in Q4, according to a flash estimate from the national statistics office.
Seasonally and workday-adjusted GDP rose 0.8% quarter on quarter in Q4, the strongest quarterly growth since Q2 2023, marking a modest recovery after four years of near-stagnation.
The 2024 GDP estimate aligns with consensus expectations but falls far short of the 3.4% y/y growth initially projected by the government when drafting the 2024 budget. Weaker-than-expected economic performance partly contributed to the fiscal deficit widening to 8.65% of GDP, well above the 5% target, though the slippage was primarily due to higher public spending.
For 2025, the government forecasts 2.5% GDP growth, driven by all sectors, though industry is expected to contribute less. Gross fixed capital formation is projected to strengthen to +5.9% y/y (from +2.1% y/y in 2024), while private consumption is set to slow to +2.5% y/y, down from +5.4% y/y in Q4 2024.