Serbia's birth rate has hit a historic low, with only 60,813 babies born in 2024, marking a slight decrease of 500 from the previous year, according to data from the Republic Institute of Statistics (RZS).

This figure is the lowest number of births since data collection began, N1 reported. In contrast to the nearly 200,000 births recorded in 1950, Serbia’s newborn numbers have steadily declined since the mid-1980s, dipping below 100,000 for the first time during that period. Although there were some brief increases in the early 2000s, the overall trend has remained downward.

The demographic challenges facing Serbia are not unique. Across Central, Eastern and Southeast Europe, countries such as Greece and Poland are grappling with similarly low birth rates and rising emigration.

The RZS’s projections paint a grim future for Serbia, forecasting a population decrease of approximately 1.5mn people over the next three decades. Serbia's population is expected to drop from 6.7mn in 2022 to 5.2mn by 2052.

The primary driver of population decline in Serbia is negative natural growth, which is expected to account for 86% of the population loss, overshadowing the impact of emigration, which is often cited as a significant factor in the Balkans' demographic challenges.

Emigration is an ongoing issue too, with approximately 50,000 people leaving Serbia each year in search of better economic opportunities, primarily in Western Europe. While some return, the majority are pensioners who spent their working years abroad.

By 2030, the percentage of Serbia’s population aged 65 and older is projected to increase from 21% to 24%. In contrast, the number of children under 14 will significantly shrink, contributing to an inversion of the country’s age pyramid. The average age of the population is expected to rise from 43.8 years in 2024 to 46.4 years by 2052.

The ramifications of this decline are far-reaching. A shrinking working-age population poses risks to productivity, while an aging society will place increasing pressure on Serbia's pension and healthcare systems.

Experts suggest that financial incentives could help encourage higher birth rates, though many acknowledge that these measures alone may not be sufficient to reverse the trends. Additionally, addressing emigration and exploring migration solutions could alleviate some of the demographic strain.