Azerbaijan and Armenia announced on March 13 that they had completed negotiations on a peace treaty, a historic step after decades of conflict. However, the signing of the deal now hinges on Azerbaijan’s demand for constitutional amendments in Armenia and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, conditions that Yerevan rejects as preconditions. Meanwhile, reports of ceasefire violations along the border have intensified, further complicating the fragile peace process.

Earlier Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry stated that while the text of the agreement had been finalised, the treaty would only be signed if Armenia amended its constitution to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan and dissolves the OSCE Minsk Group, a mediation format that Baku considers obsolete. President Ilham Aliyev reinforced these conditions, saying that trust in Armenia was “close to zero” and that Baku required legal guarantees before signing the agreement.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov addressed ambassadors from Muslim-majority countries at an iftar event, reiterating Azerbaijan’s demand for constitutional changes in Armenia as a prerequisite for signing the treaty. He also criticised the OSCE Minsk Group, framing it as an outdated institution that failed to resolve the conflict.

Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan pushed back, calling the conditions illegitimate and stating that they had never been part of negotiations. He insisted that Yerevan was ready to sign the agreement without additional conditions and was prepared to finalise the treaty’s signing venue and date.

The peace deal consists of 17 articles, with two key unresolved issues debated until mid-March — the presence of third-party forces on the border (EU monitors) and the withdrawal of lawsuits at international courts. Armenia rejected removing EU monitors entirely but was willing to withdraw them from delimited areas, a compromise that Azerbaijan reportedly did not accept.

US national security advisor Mike Waltz urged both sides to finalise the treaty without delay, following a conversation with Azerbaijan’s presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev. Waltz called for prisoner releases and greater regional security cooperation, saying that the US sees the treaty as a crucial step toward long-term stability.

Despite the ongoing diplomatic process, reports of border clashes have resurfaced, raising concerns about escalating tensions. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence accused Armenian forces of multiple ceasefire violations between March 16 and 17, claiming that Armenian troops fired on Azerbaijani positions in Goris, Vardenis, and other areas.

Armenia’s Ministry of Defence denied the accusations, calling them false and reiterating its proposal for a joint ceasefire monitoring mechanism to prevent further clashes. Yerevan stated that Azerbaijan had not responded to the offer, making it difficult to verify ceasefire violations objectively.

Earlier, Azerbaijani state-controlled outlets were pushing narratives that Armenia is preparing for war. Observers argue that when Azerbaijan pushes such allegations, it is usually other way around - it uses them as pretexts.