Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said the admission of Ukraine to the EU would destabilise Europe's economy and its financial stability.

Speaking at the annual economic conference of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MKIK) on March 7, the prime minister announced the launch of a "consultative referendum" on the issue to poll people's views as quickly as possible. The current legal framework only permits holding binding plebiscites, which, if successful, would oblige the government to act accordingly, analysts said.

Hence the initiative will be another national consultation survey often used by the government to shape public opinion. These informal questionnaires are seen as propaganda tools designed to manipulate respondents through biased wording and questions that strongly lead participants toward predetermined responses.

Orban declared that whereas Ukraine's financial programmes could be established without Hungary, its EU membership could not. The prime minister said this matter was of such weight that it could determine Hungary's fate in the medium and long term.

The EU's decision on Ukraine, made without Hungary's vote, "affects us" as Europe would finance the Ukrainian army, which is projected to be 1mn strong after the war. It would also finance the Ukrainian state rearming itself and fast-track its EU accession to offset the decision not to admit the country to Nato, he said, adding that this would "buckle Europe's economy, so this must not be allowed to happen."

Commenting on the document adopted at last week's EU summit, Hungary's veteran leader said he had "good reason to veto the document", which he said was about sending more weapons and money to Ukraine in the coming period.

While EU leaders reiterated their support for Kyiv, Orban, a close ally of Trump, refused to endorse a joint statement on Ukraine. The remaining 26 leaders pledged continued financial and military aid to Kyiv, adding that "there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine."

Orban claimed the Hungarian economy had lost €20bn since the start of the war in Ukraine three years ago, "so if there's a country that has a vital interest in the war ending as soon as possible, it is Hungary." The figure cited by the prime minister has been questioned by economists for its lack of credibility.

Orban also alluded to the potential economic cooperation package with the new US administration after establishing a political alliance.

"This will even be beneficial to us if a tariff war breaks out in the meantime, which will cost every EU country, including Hungary," he added.

Orban has repeatedly referred to the period ahead as the new golden age in bilateral ties after an icy relationship with the former Biden administration. Hungary hopes to secure billions of US investments in the period ahead.

On economic issues, he touted Hungary's successful track record of job creation and infrastructure development and its drive to attract more investments.

He said that some 3,000 projects worth HUF6 trillion (€15bn) are currently being carried out. Another 1,733 projects are in the planning stage, 13 priority construction projects are under way, along with 10 major road construction projects worth HUF1.3 trillion, excluding the Budapest-Belgrade railway line, 29 railway development projects worth HUF754bn are under way.

Orban said no new major projects would be launched in Budapest because the government had to mobilise development funds outside the capital, targeting less developed southern regions.

He reaffirmed his commitment to support families through a tax system that incentivises work, referring to plans to extend lifelong exemptions from personal income tax to mothers with two children. The measure to be introduced gradually could burden the budget by HUF1 trillion annually.

Orban's resistance to Ukraine's EU accession aligns with his broader strategy of leveraging EU-related disputes for domestic political gains. By positioning himself as the defender of Hungarian sovereignty against Brussels, he seeks to consolidate his support base, analysts said.

By launching a "consultative vote" on Ukraine, Orban can once again rally his supporters and seize the political initiative from opposition leader Peter Magyar.

Head of the Tisza Party also promised to launch a referendum on key political issues, which would also include Ukraine's EU membership. Magyar also noted that Ukraine, a war-torn country, has no chance of becoming an EU member in the coming decades, just as Turkey will never become a member.

Magyar's pragmatic stance on Ukraine demonstrates that he is unwilling to oppose the majority opinion, as he seeks to broaden his support by attracting voters away from the ruling national conservative party.

Opinion polls indicate that a majority of Hungarians oppose Ukraine's EU accession. A 2024 survey by Policy Solutions found that 61% of respondents rejected Ukraine's membership bid. Among Fidesz voters, this ratio was 75% and it exceeded 50% among opposition voters as well.

Given these figures, the outcome of Orban's national consultation will provide a platform for reinforcing his government's narrative. Peter Magyar's initiative, however, will address the cost of living crisis and the deterioration of the public sector from healthcare to education and pressure on judicial freedom.