Turkey on March 7 backed the call of France and Ukraine for an aerial and sea truce in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan got behind the proposal made by French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

“We support the idea of establishing a ceasefire as soon as possible and stopping attacks in the air and at sea as a confidence-building measure between the parties,” Erdogan told an online meeting organised by the EU to brief non-EU member partner countries—including Turkey, the UK, Canada, Norway and Iceland—on the March 6 Special European Council, an emergency summit called on the Ukraine crisis and ramping up the bloc’s spending on defence.

Turkey boasts Nato’s second strongest land forces after the US. It appears to be one of the big winners from last week’s bad-tempered encounter between Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump and US Vice President JD Vance at the White House and Europe’s realisation that, with future US military support for Ukraine and even Nato in serious doubt, it’s time to massively build up its defence industry to counter the possible existential threat of an imperial-like Russia.

On February 27, Turkish top diplomat Hakan Fidan outlined how Europe will need Turkey in a world with less or no Nato and on March 7 he urged member states of the defence bloc to “unite and create their own centre of gravity,” describing Donald Trump’s policies as a “wake-up call” for European security, adding: “The genie is out of the bottle, and there’s no way to put it back in: even if Trump decides not to withdraw [US] troops from Europe at this moment, there is always the possibility that, in the future, someone with similar views and policies might consider reducing America’s contribution to European security.”

Also on March 7, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk spoke of a diplomatic offensive to find a new security format in Europe that would include involving Turkey in a closer role. Tusk also spoke of work under way to make all adult men in Poland undergo military training and of building up the Polish army, currently numbering around 200,000, to half a million soldiers, including reservists.

In comments made on March 4 during an address to ambassadors in Ankara, Erdogan said Europe’s security is inconceivable without Turkey.

He told his audience: “It is becoming increasingly impossible for Europe, which does not include Turkiye as it deserves, to continue its presence as a global actor. To put it plainly, establishing European security in the absence of Turkiye is inconceivable.”

Although Turkey’s longstanding ambition to join the EU has made little progress in recent decades—and in recent years has become de facto frozen given sharp differences between Brussels and Ankara on matters such as some aspects of foreign policy and basic human rights—Erdogan still regards achieving membership of the bloc as a strategic priority for the country.

In his remarks, he also said: ““We expect our European friends to face this reality [that Europe’s security requires Turkish participation] and move forward with our full membership process with a visionary perspective.”

Back on January 19, in a Comment piece, bne IntelliNews said that “With Trump back in the White House, Europe may need to turn to Turkey to strengthen its security.”

The article focused on the argument advanced in an assessment by Chatham House senior consulting fellow Galip Dalay that, with Trump’s commitment to Nato questionable, the EU could not hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.

In a March 3 note, Timothy Ash, an economist and Russia and Eurasia analyst at Chatham House, said: “Encouraging also to see Turkiye at the Lancaster summit [in London called in response to developments in the Ukraine crisis] over the weekend. Turkiye with a 800,000-strong land army is the only power in European NATO which can put tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of troops on the ground in Ukraine. Turkiye also has the manufacturing scale to help bridge Europe’s gaps in military industrial production.”

Turkey, however, would want something in exchange, observed Ash, saying Ankara would be after “technology exchange, access to finance and markets—a new Customs Union with the EU, and deeper trading relations with the U.K.”