Badra Gunba claimed victory over his opponent Adgur Ardzinba in the second round of presidential polls in the Russia-backed Georgian region of Abkhazia on March 1.

Rivals Gunba and Ardzinba represent two polarised political camps that have alternately held power in the Abkhaz government for the past two decades. The two candidates have different approaches, but both remain broadly in favour of maintaining Abkhazia’s pro-Russia stance.

As bne IntelliNews reported, all five of the participating candidates failed to secure a 50% majority in the initial snap election of February 15, and a runoff between the two front runners – the Kremlin favourite and acting leader of Abkhazia, Gunba, and opposition head, Ardzinba – was scheduled.

Gunba addressed his supporters late on March 1 after taking almost 55% of the votes, beating the opposition leader who achieved just under 42%, according to preliminary electoral commission results cited by Abkhaz state media outlet Apsnypress,

Georgian outlet Civil.ge reported that official results will come this week, after ballots cast by a record 70% of the Abkhaz population have been counted.

“This should be a victory for the people of Abkhazia,” Gunba said, urging people to remain “united” and highlighting “development, order and prosperity” as his administration’s key goals.

After his appointment, Gunba signed several decrees, including on the removal of Abkhazia’s prime minister, Valery Bganba, and deputy prime minister Zurab Margania. Until the formation of a new cabinet, Bganba has been replaced by Vladimir Delba as acting prime minister. Said Gubaz has been appointed as acting minister of finance, a statement from Abkhazia’s presidency said.

Gunba was promoted from vice president to acting leader of the breakaway region in November 2024 after the former president Aslan Bzhania was ousted amid public protests led by Ardzinba against a controversial investment deal with Russia. A call from the Abkhaz parliament for snap elections in February followed.

Gunba enjoyed Russian backing throughout his presidential campaign, and his victory was very likely ensured by the combined efforts of ample material and administrative resources courtesy of Moscow and a strong propaganda campaign on Russian state television channels, the news source for many in Abkhazia.

In the lead up to the runoff, this backing intensified in an apparent attempt by Moscow to sway the presidential vote Gunba’s way.

Several Russian officials travelling to Abkhazia to meet Gunba in a show of support, which lead to allegations by the Central Election Commission against the Presidential candidate of violating campaign laws, as reported by OC Media.

Additionally, a test flight between Moscow and the long-dormant Babushara airport in the Abkhaz capital Sokhumi on February 7 and the promise of regular flights from May further underscored cooperation between Gunba and the Kremlin.  

Simultaneously, pro-Kremlin media painted the opposition candidate Ardzinba as a pro-Western Russia sceptic backed by Turkey.

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Gunba via a telegram, in which he expressed confidence that “friendly, allied Russian-Abkhazian relations will continue to strengthen for the benefit of our fraternal peoples”.

Meanwhile, Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party criticised the runoff vote, labelling it as “illegal”, “contradictory to international law” and “yet another gross violation of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”, as quoted by Civil.ge.

Only a handful of countries, including Russia, recognise Abkhazia and a second Georgian breakaway region South Ossetia as autonomous republics, while most of the international community sees them as Georgian territories occupied by Russia and views any diplomatic engagement with their de facto authorities as a violation of Georgia’s sovereignty.

Unlike the relatively calm first round in February, the runoff round of the presidential vote on March 1 was marred by “an extremely tense atmosphere”, namely “controversy, violence and even gunfire”, as reported by Georgian outlet Jam News.

The outlet highlighted missing ballots, unsealed and unstamped ballots, and the storming of a polling station by several armed, masked individuals who upturned ballot boxes and stole ballot papers before firing shots into the air fleeing in several cars.

Jam News reported that the Central Election Commission Chairman, Dmitry Marshan, confirmed that the assorted violations had no impact on the vote outcome.

The outlet also cited comments from Abkhaz journalist Inal Khashig, who warned that Gunba would need to find a way to address the more than 40% of Abkhazians who voted against him and foreshadowed an “endless crisis” if the new leader failed to do this.