Turkey appears to be one of the big winners from last week’s White House meltdown and Europe’s realisation that, with Nato looking dead, it’s time to massively build up its defence industry to counter the possible existential threat of an imperial-like Russia.

Analysts have been looking at the significance of Turkey’s top-table attendance at the March 2 London Ukraine crisis summit of European leaders.

“Encouraging also to see Turkiye at the Lancaster summit over the weekend,” wrote Timothy Ash, an economist and Russia and Eurasia analyst at Chatham House, in a March 3 note. “Turkiye with a 800,000-strong land army is the only power in European NATO which can put tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of troops on the ground in Ukraine. Turkiye also has the manufacturing scale to help bridge Europe’s gaps in military industrial production.” Turkey, however, would want something in exchange, observed Ash, saying Ankara would be after “technology exchange, access to finance and markets—a new Customs Union with the EU, and deeper trading relations with the U.K.”

“These are easily doable – low hanging fruit,” concluded Ash. “Turkiye is no ally of Russia, it is nervous about the prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine and its domination then of the Black Sea and its environs. Europe needs to reach out to Turkiye.”

In a later interview on Bloomberg TV, Ash talked about how Turkey could “provide a stopgap solution” when it comes to Europe’s lack of defence manufacturing capacity to rearm and how “the Turks are desperate to work with us, they want our technology, they can give us their manufacturing capability to quickly step up. We need to bring Turkey in, it was very good that [British PM Keir] Starmer invited the Turks yesterday, we saw the [Turkish] foreign minister Hakan Fidan there, they are going to be central to anything that happens.”

In a Comment piece on January 19, bne IntelliNews said that “With Trump back in the White House, Europe may need to turn to Turkey to strengthen its security.”

The article focused on the argument advanced in an assessment by Chatham House senior consulting fellow Galip Dalay that, with Trump’s commitment to Nato questionable, the EU could not hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.

On February 27, Turkish top diplomat Fidan outlined how Europe will need Turkey in a world with less or no Nato.

Last week, it emerged that Turkey, which has the second largest land forces in Nato behind those of the US, is weighing whether it could send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine should a ceasefire arrangement or peace deal with Russia be struck.

Turkish forces could, however, only be sent with Russia's consent and following the adoption of a UN Security Council resolution backed by Moscow, a professor, Deniz Tansi from Turkey’s Yeditepe University, was on March 3 cited as saying by the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

A Black Sea neighbour of both Ukraine and Russia, Turkey has maintained good ties with both since the start of the war three years ago. It has provided Kyiv with military support including attack drones, but at the same time it has refused to participate in Western sanctions against Moscow.