Following a disastrous meeting with President Trump in the White House on February 28 and the subsequent halting of US military aid to Ukraine, the country’s leadership has dug in its heels about prioritising security guarantees from the West.

“We need and ask for concrete security guarantees, both from the United States of America and from Europe and from the G7 countries. This is existentially important not only for Ukraine, but also for the European Union, for the European continent,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on March 3.

However, time does not seem to be on Ukraine’s side, as several analysts have pointed out. The suspension of US military aid to Ukraine will severely impact the combat effectiveness of its armed forces, with current stockpiles unlikely to last beyond a few months, military analyst Alexander Mikhailov told TASS.

"It’s hard to expect these weapons to last several months. Reports suggest that Ukrainian forces are already experiencing ammunition shortages," Mikhailov said.

He noted that US military assistance had already declined before the suspension, with monthly aid packages shrinking from $4-5bn in 2023 to just $300-500mn in recent months. If US President Donald Trump decides to halt aid permanently, European nations are unlikely to step in immediately, he added.

On 28 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met Trump at the White House, but their talks quickly turned confrontational. In a televised exchange, Trump accused Zelenskiy of being disrespectful and ungrateful for US support, while Vice President J D Vance criticised him for failing to thank Washington. The meeting ended abruptly, with Zelenskiy reportedly asked to leave. A planned US-Ukraine minerals agreement and a joint press conference were cancelled.

On 3 March, Reuters, citing a White House official, reported that Trump had ordered the suspension of all military aid to Ukraine. A Pentagon official later confirmed the move to TASS.

The aid suspension will particularly affect supplies of air defence missiles and ammunition for HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, according to Ukrainian lawmaker Alexey Goncharenko.

"First of all, the suspension of aid from the United States may impact missiles for air defence, as well as ammunition for HIMARS and artillery," he wrote on Telegram.

Meanwhile, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, warned that the country’s air defence system was under increasing strain, with Russian forces bypassing existing defensive measures.

Senior lawmaker Fyodor Venislavsky told RBC-Ukraine that Ukraine has weapons to last for about six months but will face growing difficulties.

"Of course, it will be significantly more difficult," he said. "That is why everyone is working on compensation measures to replace what the US may stop supplying."

The US has also halted the delivery of military cargo to Ukraine via Poland’s Jasionka airport, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed.

"Reports from the border confirm the statements of the American side," Tusk said, calling the situation the "biggest challenge in recent decades."

Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen criticised the US decision, urging Europe to accelerate support for Ukraine.

"They are putting Ukraine in a difficult situation when it needs support the most. Europe must act much faster," Poulsen told Denmark’s TV 2.

However, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni dismissed calls from France and the UK to send European peacekeepers to Ukraine, saying the proposal was "difficult to implement" and confirming that Italy would not send troops.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Western aid, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine would fully meet its artillery needs with domestic production by the end of 2025.

"Today, Ukraine produces its own artillery. And during this year, we will be able to meet 100% of the need for artillery with our own production," Shmyhal said at a press conference in Kyiv on March 4.