Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze claimed on December 5 that since recent raids by the authorities on opposition workplaces, violence by pro-EU demonstrators has ceased, signalling his conviction that the current wave of unrest is losing momentum and will soon fizzle out.

But while it is true that the rallies on both December 4 and 5 were calm, the crowds which gathered outside the parliament building on Rustaveli Avenue were just as large as on previous nights. If anything, Georgians may have felt more inclined to take to the streets in the past two days in a show of solidarity and defiance in the wake of Georgian Dream’s (GD’s) ongoing crackdown on opposition leaders and other public figures who have spoken out against the regime.

Violence cut off at its source

On December 4, police officers entered the offices of the member parties of the Coalition for Change opposition bloc, Girchi – More Freedom, Ahali and Droa. One of the C4C leaders, Nika Gvaramia, was violently detained, among other opposition figures and pro-EU activists.

Speaking the following day, Kobakhidze declared the offices of the country’s pro-Western opposition parties were the “primary sources of violence” during ongoing street rallies in Tbilisi against the government’s recent decision to halt Georgia’s EU accession process. He claimed law enforcers prevented a “Maidan”, a reference to the 2013-14 EuroMaidan Revolution in Ukraine. 

Law enforcement allegedly seized supplies of fireworks, eggs and other items used by demonstrators against riot police during the protests, which entered their ninth night on December 6. Kobakhidze defended the police searches, framing them as “preventative measures rather than acts of repression”, claiming that opposition forces had supplied protesters with pyrotechnics to use against law enforcement. 

“As soon as we entered these offices and confiscated the necessary tools, the violence immediately stopped,” the prime minister stated on December 5, alluding to how the protest the previous night remained peaceful, in contrast to rallies from November 28 to December 3, which saw violent clashes between demonstrators and riot police. 

“Consequently, the Ministry of Internal Affairs no longer needs to respond to the protests,” Kobakhidze continued, adding that the transition to peaceful action by demonstrators following the crackdown on opposition parties “fully confirms that the ‘Maidan’ orchestrated by the [opposition] United National Movement was entirely led by political parties”, backed by “foreign actors”, and had failed thanks to “lawful actions” by the authorities.

Nothing to suggest a drop in momentum

Kobakhidze’s statements signal that the ruling Georgian Dream, which demonstrators accuse of usurping power following allegedly rigged elections in October, believe that in neutralising the so called “source of the violence”, they have ensured protests on Rustaveli Avenue will remain peaceful, lose steam and eventually die out. 

However, local outlet JamNews reported that drone footage from December 4 shows the turnout exceeded those of the previous six days.

Protests stayed peaceful on December 4 and 5 not because demonstrators had lost their equipment and leaders following the raids and arrests, as Kobakhidze claimed, but because riot police and special forces did not carry out a brutal crackdown, meaning protesters were not pushed to retaliate. 

Every night from November 28 to December 3, law enforcers used water cannons, tear gas, physical violence and arrests to attempt to forcibly clear the crowds, while protesters shot back fireworks and built barriers to try and hold off police cordons. 

On December 4 and 5 though, crowds were able to freely vacate Rustaveli, rather than be chased away by police in balaclavas, and by dawn the street was clear. 

The rally on December 4 was unusually quiet, which Kobakhidze put down to the opposition’s firework supply being confiscated, but on December 5 demonstrators appeared to have resolved their supply issues, and once again put on a glorious pyrotechnical display, illuminating the parliament building with colourful explosions. It appears Kobakhidze’s conviction that the opposition were arming protesters is flawed.

Quieter and more peaceful action, like that of the past two night, does give the impression that momentum is dropping and protests are abating, and GD has been quick to point this out. However, the reality on the ground suggests the opposite. Crowds remain huge and demonstrators are arriving better equipped with gas masks and goggles. Hot drink stations are popping up within the crowd, as well as performances by singers and musicians. On the evening of December 5, protesters raised their phone torches and came together in a chorus of the national anthem, signalling that morale and momentum are still high. The regions are also active, with large rallies reported on the night of December 5 in Zugdidi, Batumi and Kutaisi.

Parallel reality

While police violence has been reined in, as of December 5, five more individuals had been detained on charges of organising, leading, and participating in group violence and “public inciting violent action”, including a 14-year-old boy who was knocked unconscious during a scuffle with police officers in Kutaisi. Incidents like this are sure to spark more anger, and it is likely the ruling party’s continuing crackdown will only fuel the Georgians resistance.

Among those arrested in Tbilisi were actor Andro Chichinadze, comedian Onise Tsikhadze and allegedly a foreign national who has not been named. The MIA stated defendants “disobeyed and resisted law enforcers” during the ongoing protests on Rustaveli Avenue, and “threw various objects at the police officers.” 

In a move reminiscent of President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, it appears the leaders of the ruling party have spun a parallel reality to suit themselves, one in which demonstrators are solely responsible the violence at the recent protests. Kobakhidze has repeatedly praised law enforcement for handling the dispersals “according to the highest standards, exceeding even European norms”, whilst highlighting protesters’ violence against police resulting in 150 officers sustaining injuries.

Meanwhile, dozens of videos showing people being beaten at protests have circulated in the media and on social networks.

The Georgian Young Lawyers Association, a local human rights watchdog, has reported that 319 demonstrators have been subject to beatings before or during protests, with many requiring medical attention and even surgery. One individual required emergency resuscitation.

“Severe injuries, mostly to the face, eyes and head, strongly indicate that the police repeatedly used force disproportionate to the situation,” stated the Georgian Ombudsman, Levan Ioseliani. 

“The location, nature and severity of the injuries suggest that the police resorted to violence as a means of punishment. Such excessive violence aimed at punishment constitutes an act of torture,” Ioseliani continued.

No longer a threat

Judging by his comments on December 5, Kobakhidze seems convinced that the “neutralisation” of the violent opposition and their resources has done the trick, and the nightly protests taking all over Georgia are no longer a concern for the government.

At a press conference on December 6, Kobakhidze announced that Georgia’s “peaceful and stable development” would continue “despite recent short-term fluctuations” in the economy amid the ongoing protests. 

The PM highlighted how the country’s development was “not under threat”, citing a recovery in the exchange rate of the lari, the national currency. “There was a temporary impact on the exchange rate of the lari, however, as soon as the violence ceased, the rate began to decline,” Kobakhidze said.

On December 6, the security level for the Georgian parliament building was lowered from red to yellow, reaffirming that the ruling party believes any threat the protesters posed has now passed.

If riot police continue to watch on passively in Tbilisi, the question remains as to whether Georgians will keep coming out every night in the same numbers. Judging by the first six nights of protests, some among the demonstrators crave the thrill of the fight and the dramatic clashes with law enforcers. Albeit a perverse concept, violent confrontations and revolutionary action no doubt satisfy many Georgians’ anger far more effectively than standing on the street in front of parliament. Allowing the emotion to diffuse and people to tire may well be the game the authorities are playing.

Delusional thinking

Yet believing that the protests would dissipate once they started arresting opposition leaders shows the extent to which the ruling party underestimates the Georgian people’s anger. 

“If we die, it will be worth it if our country is free,” one protester told bne IntelliNews on the night of December 30, signalling the level of Georgians’ commitment to the national idea of EU integration and how fundamental they consider that cause to be to their identity.

For protesters, GD’s EU about-turn was the spark that ignited a whole lot of anger, consolidated by the ruling party’s alleged theft of the elections, authoritarian legislation, democratic backsliding, the capturing of national institutions and an increasingly Russian style of rule.

Demonstrators have also underscored how opposition leadership is in no way integral to the current resistance movement, which remains de-centralised and self-organised. “The people themselves are the leaders here. We don’t want to go with any politicians right now because this is not just a political situation, it’s about our existence,” Misha told bne IntelliNews, as he stood in the crowd with friends on Rustaveli Avenue.

The weeks since the October elections have proved just how unpredictable patterns of protests can be in Georgia, and it seems that the weekend ahead will be the make-or-break moment for the ongoing anti-government movement.