Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov conducted a swift but significant six-hour visit to Tehran on February 25, meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian. The visit occurred amid unusually cold weather for Tehran, with temperatures dropping to minus six degrees Celsius, resulting in school and government office closures. 

Media outlets in Tehran have been unnerved by the recent rekindling of relations between Moscow and Washington. Now, officials in Tehran are asking themselves the question: is Lavrov following the strategic agreement roadmap between Iran and Russia, or is he delivering a threatening message from the West, particularly from US President Donald Trump?

The visit occurs just one week after direct talks between American and Russian officials in Riyadh on February 18, which reportedly focused on the Ukraine war and Middle East issues. Trump's return to the White House and his recent statements about "quickly ending the Ukraine war", combined with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's sharp criticism of "negotiations without Kyiv's presence", have fuelled rumours about a potential grand bargain between Moscow and Washington.

Some analysts believe Iran and Ukraine could be part of a geopolitical trade-off. Tehran-Moscow relations have reached their peak in recent years with the signing of a comprehensive strategic agreement and Iran's supply of drones to Russia for the Ukraine conflict. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria and his subsequent refuge in Moscow has raised alarms for Iran about Russia's reliability as an ally against the West.

"Iran's position on nuclear negotiations is completely clear. We will not negotiate under pressure, under threat, or under sanctions," Araghchi stated during a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Tehran on February 25.

Potential Trump message?

Most speculation centres on whether Lavrov is carrying a message from Donald Trump to Iran. Some analysts suggest the US is pressuring Iran to completely shut down its nuclear programme and weaken the "resistance axis".

Western media reports indicate that a potential US-Russia rapprochement on Ukraine could mean reduced Russian support for Tehran, especially as Moscow seeks to reduce tensions with the West. In an interview earlier this year, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated: "We have strategic relations with Russia, but this doesn't mean we agree on all issues or have complete dependence."

Alternatively, some sources in Iran predict Lavrov has arrived with an alternative plan from Putin. Over the past years, Putin has consistently spoken about developing economic relations with Iran as a way to counter Western sanctions. This proposal could include covert oil transactions or the use of an alternative payment system to SWIFT, previously suggested by former Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mehdi Safari in 2022.

Iran not for budging officially

Iran's former foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that negotiations with the US are currently "impossible" due to Trump's approach toward Iran, Young Journalists Club reported on February 25.

Speaking on Radio Iran's live programme, Mehmanparast explained that while Iranian officials have never rejected the principle of negotiation, Trump's threatening stance makes dialogue impractical at present.

"Trump threatens us from a position of superiority and imagines that Iran is a country like Panama or Mexico that he can command," Mehmanparast said.

"The US president issued an executive order against us to force the Islamic Republic to submit to his demands, but he should know that as long as he maintains such an approach, negotiations are neither possible nor beneficial for the country." The former diplomat said that Trump is not seeking mutual understanding or benefits but rather aims to impose his demands on Iran through pressure and threats.

"If the United States changes its approach, abandons its hostility toward the Iranian people, and speaks from a respectful position, then the conditions will change," he added.

Lavrov's visit to Tehran is sensitive when Iran faces two main options: either submit to Western demands and halt its strategic nuclear programmes or rely on a potential Russian proposal that may not guarantee future security.

Dialogue without high-level threats

Nevertheless, Tehran clearly does not want war. The day before meeting with Lavrov, Araghchi was in Geneva at a high-level conference on disarmament. After meeting with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the Iranian minister reported: they mainly discussed the importance of international cooperation to eliminate threats to global security.

"We cannot neglect the resource of diplomacy," Lavrov stated today in Tehran. "It is necessary to use it as effectively as possible without any threats or hints at forceful solutions." Araghchi added that Tehran is in constant coordination with Russian and Chinese partners: "Our position is extremely clear — we will not talk under pressure from the US."

Until America changes its tone, the Iranian diplomat emphasised, direct dialogue is out of the question. In response, Lavrov reportedly told his colleague about how the tone of Americans toward Russia began to change in Riyadh during recent negotiations with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.