Russian ruble value surges to become world's best performing currency YTD
3 days ago
Poland’s core inflation, an indicator that measures price growth excluding movement in prices of food and energy, came in at 3.6% year on year in March (chart) after posting the same reading in February, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on April 16.
Core inflation has been in a downward trend, longer term, as the indicator declined 0.7pp between November and March on the back of the weakening of labour cost dynamics, limited demand pressure and subdued inflation abroad.
The NBP assumes that both headline and core inflation will ease gradually toward the target in 2025. The NBP’s inflation target is 2.5%, with a deviation of 1pp either way.
Headline CPI came in at 4.9% y/y in March, the same growth rate as in the preceding two months, marking Q1 inflation rate below the central bank’s expectations. That, in turn, prompted the NBP to hint strongly at a first cut in its reference interest rate coming as soon as next month.
The NBP’s reference rate has been at a 20-year high of 5.75% since October 2023. The current consensus is for a 50bp cut in May and – possibly – another one in June to bring the headline interest rate at 4.75%.
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