The Philippines is seeking to expand the informal security alliance known as the ‘Squad’ by including India and South Korea, in an effort to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, a recent South China Morning Post (SCMP) report claims.

Military officials in Manila believe that broadening regional cooperation will enhance both surveillance and response capabilities, making it more difficult for Beijing to operate unchallenged in contested waters, the report says.

In recent years, Beijing has been making increasingly aggressive moves in the South China Sea area in particular, often resulting in low-level clashes with local fishermen or coast guard officials from countries in the area. The Squad, which is currently made up of the Philippines, Australia, Japan and the US, already focuses on military cooperation, intelligence-sharing, and joint exercises. Analysts suggest that by adding India and South Korea the group would significantly bolster the alliance’s ability to coordinate regional responses to Chinese actions in long-disputed maritime areas. Yet, no mention has to date been made of Taiwan joining the group, likely for fear of antagonising China.

General Romeo Brawner Jr., Chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, in Manila, highlighted the country’s efforts to strengthen deterrence through collaboration in the SCMP report. He said the Philippines was working alongside Japan to expand the alliance to include India and, potentially South Korea.

Brawner also highlighted the shared security concerns of Manila and New Delhi, identifying China as a common challenge and went on to note the importance of intelligence-sharing and joint efforts in maintaining regional stability.

Crucial to the bigger picture is the Squad forming part of a broader network of security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific including AUKUS, a defence pact between Australia, the UK, and the US. But this itself again raises the question of Taiwan and why the only nation under daily threat of invasion by China in the immediate vicinity is not included in future Squad plans.

Former Philippine Navy defence analyst Vincent Kyle Parada was referenced by the SCMP describing India as the only Asian continental power capable of balancing China’s influence in the region. Were military capability purely a numbers game, Parada would be spot on. Continuing, he suggested that while South Korea remains heavily reliant on China for trade and is focused on the ever present North Korean threat, it remains a key US ally, hosting American military forces close to Beijing’s borders, but makes no mention of Taiwanese capabilities just 150km off China’s east coast.

Meanwhile, Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow with the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia programme says that India and South Korea shared security concerns with the Philippines, making their inclusion in the Squad a logical step according to the SCMP, but like Parada, avoided any direct mention of Taiwan - although Parada did point out in the same SCMP report that India and South korea sharing the same desire for stability in the wider region meant “cooler heads in the Taiwan Strait, freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and a China that acts consistently in accordance with the rules-based international order.”

It was pointed out, however, that both India and South Korea have played a significant role in modernising the Philippine military. This has primarily been seen in the provision of equipment such as Indian-made BrahMos anti-ship missiles and Korean-built frigates. South Korea, as reliant as it is on China for trade, has also previously voiced concerns over tensions in the West Philippine Sea—the part of the South China Sea within Manila’s exclusive economic zone. Indeed, in March 2024, Seoul went on record expressing concern over China’s use of water cannons against Philippine vessels in the area, although few followed these comments.

As such, despite the Philippines’ relatively limited military capabilities, the Squad, and by extension South Korea and India, will continue to provide crucial support through access to advanced military technology, intelligence-sharing, and training programmes. Manila will also continue to benefit from real-time intelligence from the US as well as Japan, and Australia. 

But the simple inclusion of Taiwan in any and all future bids at guaranteeing stability in the South China Sea or Indo-Pacific regions is a must that is being ignored. Doing so would ultimately benefit all those involved in the Squad, Quad or AUKUS by exposing Chinese intentions for what they are.

To this end, while Parada noted that the success of any expansion depended on whether India and South Korea were willing to join, similar suggestions offered by such analysts and experts need to be looked at carefully if they are choosing to skirt reality and make no substantial mention of all the players with a stake in the game.