Belarus now ‘untouchable’ under Russia’s nuclear umbrella

Belarus now ‘untouchable’ under Russia’s nuclear umbrella
Belarusian President Lukashenko says the new Union State security treaty guarantees Belarus’ “absolute security,” citing its alliance with nuclear-armed Russia as a deterrent to foreign aggression. / bne IntelliNews
By Leon Aris in Berlin April 14, 2025

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has stated that the recently signed treaty on security guarantees within the Union State framework ensures Belarus’ “absolute security”, invoking the country’s alliance with nuclear-armed Russia as a deterrent against foreign aggression. He made the remarks during an interview broadcast by Mir on April 10.

“Absolute security, no one will go to war with a nuclear country,” Lukashenko said when asked about the treaty’s benefits for Belarus. He added: “No matter how much somebody might want to wipe North Korea off the face of the earth, it won’t happen; it’s a nuclear state. It’s the same with Belarus.”

Lukashenko said neighbouring countries have changed their behaviour following the new treaty. “The Poles, Baltic countries and so on had their own plans but now they are quiet,” he said, “I follow their statements, I receive reports – they are being cautious now.”

The security pact was signed during the Supreme State Council of the Union State on December 6, 2024, formalising Moscow and Minsk’s intention to enhance their joint defence posture. The treaty outlines mutual commitments to repel external threats and coordinate military activities, consolidating a security framework that aligns Belarus more closely with the Russian Federation.

Belarus and Russia signed a “Union State” deal in 1999. The Union State is supposed to guarantee the free flow of labour, capital and goods. Work on harmonising regulations has been ongoing but the deal has yet to be implemented. It has in recent years expanded its focus on defence cooperation. The new treaty is seen as a further step in institutionalising that collaboration amid heightened tensions with NATO member states bordering Belarus.

Speaking in an interview with the Mir broadcaster, Lukashenko stressed that as members of the Union State, Belarus and Russia must remain vigilant in the face of evolving international conflicts.

“Iran is Russia's ally. They have stuck around, have helped and are helping Russia. They are very much connected economically,” he said. “And we [Belarus] are Russia's allies. We have a common defence space,” Lukashenko added, reaffirming the strategic interdependence within the Union State.

Beyond military cooperation, Lukashenko highlighted Belarus’ longstanding ties with Muslim nations, particularly Iran. “I have great respect for Muslims. Muslims can teach us a lot about resilience. Their unshakeable determination makes them a force to be reckoned with. I have very, very good relations with Muslim countries. They have respected me for a long, long time,” he said.

The comments reflect Minsk’s pivot away from the West and towards a tighter integration with Moscow and non-Western partners – part of a broader realignment driven by sanctions, security concerns and shifting global alliances.

The Kremlin has not issued a detailed statement on the treaty’s operational provisions. However, Russian officials have previously underscored their commitment to defend Belarus under the Union State framework in the event of external aggression.

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