COMMENT: South Caucasus offers a potential diplomatic triumph for Trump

COMMENT: South Caucasus offers a potential diplomatic triumph for Trump
The administration of US President Donald Trump wants to become the political team that ends the longstanding conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
By Robert Ananyan in Yerevan March 31, 2025

US President Donald Trump has an opportunity to achieve a historic win by practically supporting the establishment of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In addition to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the US may soon become involved as a mediator in resolving the conflict that has been unfolding between Armenia and Azerbaijan for nearly 35 years. 

The two South Caucasus countries, which have waged several wars over Nagorno-Karabakh, are now unprecedentedly close to signing a peace agreement. The draft agreement has been under negotiation for four years following the 44-day Karabakh war in 2020. In recent days, Yerevan and Baku announced that they had agreed on all 17 points of the agreement. 

Armenia has agreed to withdraw its international legal claims against Azerbaijan and to remove the EU monitoring mission from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border zone after signing the agreement.  

But why is US intervention necessary if the signing of the agreement is more achievable today than in the past three decades? 

The agreement remains unsigned due to additional demands from Azerbaijan, which insists on Armenia adopting a new constitution and officially dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has faced domestic criticism for these concessions, proposed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to hold immediate consultations and agree on the location and date for signing the peace agreement.

Pashinyan does not oppose the dissolution of the Minsk Group, arguing that it was created to resolve the conflict within Azerbaijan’s territory. He has also stated that he plans to hold a constitutional referendum in 2027. If a new constitution is adopted, it could take effect in 2028 or 2029. Azerbaijan’s insistence on such changes before signing the agreement suggests an attempt to delay the process for several years. 

This suggests there is room for the US to step in to resolve the deadlock. 

Until now, Washington’s role has been relatively modest. For over 30 years, the US was a member of the Minsk Group, which was supposed to resolve the conflict, proposing various formulas, but in the end, the conflict was closed through war. Under former president Joe Biden, the US merely facilitated the negotiation process between the parties by organising meetings and talks but did not impose any specific solution on anyone. 

However, the US it may now step in to impose a solution, considering Trump’s approach of using strong diplomacy to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war and other issues. 

According to our information, the US has decided to become practically involved in facilitating a deal on the Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement. US national security advisor Mike Waltz and two other key officials from Trump’s administration have demonstrated public engagement, highlighting the US interest in the South Caucasus. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently welcomed the peace agreement with Azerbaijan in a phone call with Pashinyan and emphasised the importance of lasting peace to break the cycle of regional conflicts and bring security and prosperity to the South Caucasus. Armenian and American officials agreed that any form of escalation in the South Caucasus is unacceptable. In this way, key US officials have sent a clear message to Baku that Trump’s administration will not tolerate a war against Armenia aimed at seizing the Zangezur corridor.

Meanwhile, special envoy Stephen Whitcoff stated in an interview with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson that the US will dedicate time to resolving conflicts that have a chance of being settled. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the conflict is still ongoing, the sides have significant differences, and at this moment, discussions are only about a potential deal to suspend military operations. A comprehensive Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is not yet in sight.  

Meanwhile, Yerevan and Baku have already agreed on 17 provisions, and today, they are the closest they have been in the last 35 years to signing a peace agreement. This means that the US will not be doing the heavy lifting in the negotiations. The key task for the US will be to overcome Aliyev’s resistance by pressuring him to abandon his strategy of making additional demands on Armenia beyond the 17 agreed provisions, and to sign the agreement.  

Essentially, Trump’s administration is signaling that it expects the peace agreement to be signed under US mediation. It is not ruled out that the US might present its own plan for the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement, making it difficult for Baku to reject its signing.  

However, Aliyev has serious motives for not signing the peace agreement and for continuing hostility with Armenia in a semi-war state. This is the biggest obstacle to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement that the new US administration must overcome if it wants to become the political team that brings historic peace to the South Caucasus.  

Continuing the policy of hostility toward Armenia, maintaining the constant threat of war, and deepening anti-Armenian sentiment allows Aliyev to sustain his regime. He promotes the narrative to his people that Armenia is rearming to recapture Karabakh, and to prevent this, he must continue ruling Azerbaijan. If a peace deal with Armenia is reached, Aliyev could face the risk of losing his 20-year grip on power. After the conflict is resolved, Azerbaijanis may no longer tolerate Aliyev’s autocratic rule, and revolutionary processes could begin.  

By refusing to sign the agreement, Azerbaijan also hinders Armenia’s economic development. Turkey will open its border with Armenia if the agreement is signed. This would allow Armenia to break out of semi-blockade and become part of major transportation routes connecting Central Asia to Europe. Aliyev is preventing this positive scenario for Armenian side.  

The US is the only country capable of putting an end to Aliyev’s destructive behaviour. However, is he is to achieve this, Trump must not repeat Biden’s approach, which was limited to merely calling on Baku to sign the agreement. As a first step, Trump could invite Aliyev and Pashinyan to the White House to sign the peace agreement based on the 17 agreed provisions. If Aliyev refuses this invitation, the US could impose sanctions on Azerbaijan’s oil and gas exports.  

President Trump, leveraging his good relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, could urge Israel to halt arms sales to Azerbaijan, preventing Baku from relying on a military aggression scenario and pushing it toward signing the peace agreement. Washington could also remind Baku of the facts regarding the occupation of Karabakh through war and the forced displacement of 150,000 Armenians. The US could demand that Azerbaijan ensure the return of Armenians under American security guarantees.  

Recently, Rubio asked Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan for Ankara’s support in establishing peace in the South Caucasus. I believe President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not pressure Aliyev to sign the agreement. However, if Erdoğan decides to open the Armenia-Turkey border, it would be a significant boost for the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement. Azerbaijan is refusing to sign the agreement based on the calculation that Armenia will remain isolated by Turkey and continue to suffer economic losses.  

But why should Trump want to establish peace in the South Caucasus, investing time and resources? His doctrine is to achieve peace worldwide through strength. During his campaign, Trump promised to restore peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. He also blamed the Biden-Harris administration for failing to prevent the forced displacement of Karabakh Armenians and the persecution of Christian Armenians. In other words, Trump already took on a certain commitment during his campaign.  

Yes, brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan would not be as big of an achievement as potentially halting the Russia-Ukraine war. However, resolving a 35-year-long conflict would be an honour for any US president. Over the past 35 years, numerous presidents have attempted to mediate the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement, but none have succeeded. Today, Trump has a chance to achieve historic success with minimal effort. This very fact suggests that we should expect increased US involvement in the near future. However, we still need to see the first concrete steps. One of the most important could be inviting Pashinyan and Aliyev to the White House to sign the agreement.

Robert Ananyan is a journalist based in Yerevan, Armenia, who focuses on the political and security problems of the South Caucasus.

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