In his first two weeks back in the White House, US President Donald Trump has signed a flurry of executive orders, setting off an unprecedented crisis in Latin America and stirring anger among regional leaders. Yet his administration has scored several victories, especially when it comes to migration and repatriation deals, plus other diplomatic manoeuvres aimed at keeping China’s growing influence at bay.

Colombia: Trump’s push to deport undocumented migrants on US military aircraft triggered a severe diplomatic impasse, with President Gustavo Petro rejecting the use of military planes and barring the aircraft from landing.

But the leftist leader’s resistance came at a cost. Trump threatened harsh economic measures, including 25% tariffs on Colombian goods – potentially rising to 50% within a week – along with travel bans on Colombian citizens and officials and enhanced border inspections of Colombian cargo. Hours after these punitive decisions were announced, an agreement was reached, and Colombia dispatched its presidential aircraft to Honduras to repatriate its nationals who had been deported from the US.

Brazil: The arrival of 88 Brazilian deportees on a US-chartered flight sparked outrage in Brazil. Reports of degrading treatment emerged after migrants arrived in handcuffs and chains on feet, with several claiming mistreatment during the journey.

After a technical stop in Manaus, Brazilian officials did not authorise the plane to continue due to “the use of handcuffs and chains, the poor condition of the aircraft, with a faulty air conditioning system, among other problems.” The deportees eventually travelled the last leg of their journey on a Brazilian Air Force aircraft.

Guatemala: The Guatemalan government has agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States. Under this arrangement, deportees will be returned to their home countries at US expense. This deal was struck during US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Guatemala, as part of his Central America trip. "We have agreed to increase by 40% the number of flights of deportees both of our nationality as well as deportees from other nationalities,” said Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo during a press conference.

El Salvador: A landmark deal was inked between the US and El Salvador to establish an asylum agreement. This "Safe Third Country" agreement will allow US immigration officials to deport non-Salvadoran migrants – and potentially US inmates – to El Salvador and could permit the housing of certain detainees, including Venezuelan gang members, in Salvadoran mega-prisons in exchange for an undisclosed fee. Rubio said that Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele “has agreed to the most unprecedented, extraordinary, extraordinary migratory agreement anywhere in the world.”

Panama and Mexico: Trump’s aggressive tariff diplomacy gained a first win, obtaining concessions from both Panama and Mexico. After being threatened with 25% tariffs on all exports, Mexico agreed to curb undocumented immigration, drugs and fentanyl to the US. For that, the country is deploying 10,000 troops to its northern border. In exchange, Trump delayed tariffs for one month, as conversations with President Claudia Sheinbaum continue.

Panama accepts curbing China’s influence in the Canal

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made his first international visit to Panama. He brought a personal message from President Trump, urging the country to diminish or cut off China's alleged influence over the Canal, citing concerns over national security and the stability of global trade routes.

The waterway, a pivotal maritime passage for international commerce, has witnessed Chinese investments in two ports, prompting apprehension in Washington regarding Beijing's expanding geopolitical ambitions.

Washington is not ready to give up on its “backyard,” as the control of the Panama Canal holds profound implications for worldwide supply chains, military logistics, and the balance of economic power. Notably, Hong Kong-based firms have obtained licences to operate key port facilities at both entrances of the canal, intensifying US concerns about potential strategic vulnerabilities.

Rubio's stern warning, which threatened "consequences" in case of non-compliance, underscores a broader US strategy to counteract China's involvement in critical global infrastructure, as Beijing has been actively investing in Latin American nations in recent years.

However, contrary to Trump’s public claims, the Chinese were not involved in the administration nor the operation of the Canal, which is administered by the Panama Canal Authority, an autonomous entity overseen by the state.

As a result of the pressures, Panama has officially withdrawn from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, as President José Raúl Mulino announced on February 6.

Yet, in a setback for Trump, the US has had to deal with the Panamanian authorities’ refusal to secure free passage for its government vessels through the canal. The president of Panama explained the decision by citing a constitutional impediment: “Panama’s constitution and laws regulating the Canal Authority make clear that neither the government nor the authority can waive fees. It’s a constitutional limitation,” he said.

This move has not pleased the US Secretary of State: “The United States has a treaty obligation to protect the Panama Canal if it comes under attack,” Rubio said from the Dominican Republic, the new stop of his Central American trip. “That treaty obligation would have to be enforced by the armed forces of the United States, particularly the US Navy. I find it absurd that we would have to pay fees to transit a zone that we are obligated to protect in a time of conflict.”

The situation remains prone to change, with ongoing negotiations and geopolitical recalibrations poised to shape the future of the Panama Canal and its role in global trade.

Venezuela, a significant diplomatic development

Richard Grenell, Trump's special envoy for special missions, travelled to Caracas on January 31 to meet with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This marked a notable shift in US policy, as the meeting could be interpreted as an acknowledgement of Maduro's disputed position as Venezuela's leader – a stark departure from previous US administrations, including Trump’s own first term, which had challenged his legitimacy.

The discussions between Grenell and Maduro encompassed several critical issues, including the repatriation of Venezuelan migrants and the potential easing of crippling US sanctions on the country’s vital oil industry. Caracas agreed to accept deported Venezuelan nationals from the United States, addressing a longstanding point of contention between the two nations.

Additionally, the dialogue led to the release of six American citizens who had been detained in Venezuela. Grenell announced their release, describing it as a positive step in US-Venezuelan relations.

Some believe this engagement heralds a potential new beginning in bilateral relations between Washington and Caracas, with both nations expressing a willingness to address mutual concerns.

However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio – a known hawk against regional leftist regimes – was quick to dismiss any possibility of the US recognising Maduro as Venezuela's legitimate leader, warning that the Trump administration would take action against what it considers a dictatorship engaged in electoral fraud and political repression. For now, the White House has not reversed the Biden administration's decision to recognise opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as Venezuelan president in the wake of last July's disputed election.

Only time will tell how the fractious US-Venezuela relations will evolve. But Trump sending his special envoy to Caracas certainly indicates a pragmatic approach by Washington, focusing on immediate issues such as migration and detainee release, while implicitly acknowledging Maduro's leadership in Venezuela. This sets the stage for deeper ties, potentially leading to eased US sanctions and resumed Venezuelan oil imports.

Ricardo Martins is based in Utrecht, the Netherlands, and has a PhD in Sociology specialising in European politics, geopolitics and international relations.