Opinion

OPINION: The EU must bet on nuclear

Owen Walden-Harris March 3, 2025

For Central and Eastern Europe, over reliance on renewable energy for the green transition will compound the already significant challenge of shifting away from a predominantly coal and natural gas based energy network.

Kommersant: the oddest sanctions

Ben Aris in Berlin March 2, 2025

Over the three years of the war in Ukraine, we have seen a wide range of sanctions adopted against Russia. Some worked; some didn't. But the case of the Russian business newspaper Kommersant is one of the oddest.

COMMENT: The multipolar world has no place for US-Russia imperialism

Marco Cacciati March 2, 2025

As the US and Russia collude to revive their cold war dominance, Europe must forge a new path. A revitalised EU could challenge imperial powers and contribute to building a true multipolar order.

McFAUL: What has Ukraine got to thank the US for?

bne IntelliNews March 1, 2025

US Vice President JD Vance accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of being ungrateful, but what does Ukraine have to be thankful for to the White House recently, asks former US ambassador to Russia, Mike McFaul.

KSE: Ukrainian public finance in 2024

Kyiv School of Economics February 28, 2025

Ukrainian public finance in 2024 was shaped by three key developments: tax reforms to stabilize revenues, the launch of the ERA mechanism, and debt restructuring to ease the debt burden.

COMMENT: Armenia, the last man standing

Richard Giragosian in Yerevan February 28, 2025

In a neighbourhood of authoritarian strongmen, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is increasingly isolated and exposed as the sole democratic statesman left standing in the region.

Is Trump attempting a “reverse Nixon” to peel Russia away from China?

Ben Aris in Berlin February 28, 2025

Ukraine’s worst nightmare has come true. European leaders have been shocked by US President Donald Trump’s decision to exclude Europe from the ongoing ceasefire talks and his blatant deal-making offers to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Chinese threat to submarine cables emerges in Indo-Pacific

bno Chennai bureau February 27, 2025

Taiwan's coast guard detained the Hong Tai 168, a Chinese-owned freighter, on suspicion of severing an undersea communications cable off its western coast. The incident is suspected to be part of China's "grey zone" tactics.

KSE: Most of Russia’s shadow fleet operates outside Western insurance system

Kyiv School of Economics February 26, 2025

Tankers carrying Russian oil are significantly less likely to have IG P&I insurance, finds a new KSE Institute report.

Ruble stabilises but long-term strength depends on sanctions relief

bne IntelliNews February 24, 2025

After collapsing last summer to RUB100 to the dollar , the Russian ruble has recovered a lot of ground and current settled at a relatively strong level of RUB90 to the dollar. Further appreciation will depend on sanctions relief, says Rencap.

MACRO ADVISORY: A new hope, but far from Mission Accomplished

Chris Weafer CEO of Macro-Advisory February 13, 2025

The return of Realpolitik. True to his promise, President Trump and his team have actively engaged with the Kremlin and appear to have reached the broad outline of a roadmap towards a peace process.

COMMENT: Trump's Latin America gambit pays off, but at what cost?

Ricardo Martins in Da Nang February 7, 2025

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has reignited tensions between the United States and Latin America. However, recent events have allowed Trump to secure his first wins through an aggressive, transactional foreign policy.

ING: Hungary moving in the wrong direction

ING February 7, 2025

ING has reassessed its Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when a plethora of indicators and moves in market consensus suggest that things won't improve quickly.

COMMENT: Jordan is in no position to reject Trump's Gaza plans

Mathew Cohen in Tel Aviv February 6, 2025

Jordan has been making waves about not being part of a solution to end the Gaza crisis but it has not legs to stand on.

COMMENT: Turkey, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan create new Eurasian economic hub

Seymur Mammadov in Baku February 5, 2025

A growing partnership between Azerbaijan, Turkey and Uzbekistan marks an important shift in regional economic diplomacy.

McFAUL: Why Is Trump trying to lose our new cold war with China?

Michael McFaul in Stanford February 5, 2025

In 2017, President Trump’s first administration published a historic National Security Strategy, which said we had entered a new era of great power competition with China and Russia. He was right. But now his policies mean we could lose that fight.

COMMENT: Trump’s return holds both peril and promise for the South Caucasus

Richard Giragosian in Yerevan February 4, 2025

Struggling democracy Armenia left isolated and vulnerable, while for the leaders of Azerbaijan and Georgia, Trump’s victory indicates a welcome relief from the usual US emphasis on democracy and human rights.

COMMENT: Ukraine eyes key role in Azerbaijani gas transit to Europe

Fuad Shahbazov in Durham February 3, 2025

Kyiv wants to become a transit hub for Azerbaijani gas after ending Russian gas transport, but plan faces political, logistical and economic hurdles.

COMMENT: Trump should do a deal with OPEC and tighten sanctions further to collapse the Russian economy

Ben Aris in Berlin February 3, 2025

As its parting shot, the Biden administration imposed the toughest sanctions yet on Russian oil. The incoming Trump administration is changing tack and talking about negotiations, but should tighten sanctions further and cause Russia real pain.

KSE: The cost of the damage and funding needs to rebuild Ukraine's economy

Kyiv School of Economics February 2, 2025

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has caused massive destruction of civilian infrastructure. This includes a wide variety of assets and sectors, which have suffered at least $500bn in damage.

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