Three candidates have emerged as the main players ahead of the presidential rerun scheduled for May: the ruling coalition’s candidate Crin Antonescu, the president of far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) George Simion and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan. 

Based on the available polls, an evaluation of the candidate’s potential and political developments in Romania, two of the three are expected to make it to the second round of the election, but at this moment it is still premature to forecast the outcome of the first ballot.

While Antonescu seems to trail behind his two opponents, he benefits from the support of the regional networks of the Romania’s main ruling parties, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL). Although some factions in both the Liberal and Social Democratic parties are visibly not pleased with Antonescu’s candidacy, this remains a significant asset. 

Unlike last year’s ballot, the ruling coalition (now consolidated with the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania, UDMR) came up this time with a single candidate – even if he is perhaps not the preferred candidate for each of the coalition’s members. 

Simion expects to capitalise on the electorate of Calin Georgescu – seen at an electoral support of over 40%, in recent polls. Georgescu has been banned from running again, based on gis alleged manipulation of the electoral process. But this diminishes Simion’s profile and possibly his score, and Georgescu’s electorate may be thinner and less active than believed, although many see Simion as one of the candidates in the second round.

Dan, running as an independent candidate for the centre-right electorate, stepped into the electoral race immediately after the ballot was cancelled last year. With demonstrated administrative but also political achievements, he emerged as the de facto leader of the democratic opposition after last year’s local and European elections. But the reformist Union Save Romania (USR), co-founded by Dan, failed to bring him back – an option that could have changed the course of the presidential elections in November-December.

Dan is expected to gain support from centre-right electorate, including some traditional voters of the PNL and USR.

Another relevant candidate is USR president Elena Lasconi, who is trying to capitalise on her good score in the cancelled election last November, when she came second after Georgescu.

The candidate registration process ended on March 15 and the candidate clearing process, carried out by the Constitutional Court, expired on March 19.

On March 19, Anamaria Gavrila – the other candidate backed by Georgescu (besides AUR’s Simion) stepped down from the electoral race, after being cleared by the Constitutional Court.