The upcoming European Union-Central Asia summit, to be held April 3-4 in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, is seen by some European observers as a potential watershed moment that can establish Brussels’ Global Gateway strategy as a genuine competitor to China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI or B&R) for regional influence. Initial responses to a pre-summit Central Asian tour by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, however, indicate that Central Asian leaders are cautious about the EU’s bid to raise its regional profile.

Kallas made a lightning visit to Central Asia on March 27-28, first stopping in Turkmenistan for a meeting with the foreign ministers of all five Central Asian states, and following up with quick stops in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan for talks with those countries’ presidents, Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, respectively.

A major aim of Kallas’ tour was to lay the groundwork for a successful summit. But judging by the desultory, diplomatic jargon used in the bevy of official statements about the discussions, the chances that the Samarkand meeting will turn out to be a momentous occasion seem slim. 

A 23-point joint communique issued following the foreign ministerial meeting in Ashgabat contained lots of pro-forma provisions focusing mainly on promoting trade and addressing global warming-related issues, but also including one on preventing sanctions circumvention and another on “the importance of advancing the rule of law, democracy, good governance and accountability, gender equality and universal human rights.” 

An EU statement did little to raise expectations, noting dryly that Kallas explored possibilities to expand trade and economic cooperation under the auspices of the Global Gateway programme, adding that the upcoming summit “will confirm the political resolve for closer strategic cooperation between the two regions at the highest political level.”

Statements issued by Mirziyoyev and Tokayev about their discussions with Kallas were similarly restrained in their assessments. 

The Uzbek president’s office merely offered that “issues of further deepening of Uzbekistan’s relations with EU institutions have been considered.” It went on to express hope that the EU could provide a boost for Uzbekistan’s effort to gain membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), adding that cooperation should focus on “unlocking the potential of the Trans-Caspian transport corridor.”

Tokayev, meanwhile, said Kazakhstan’s signing of an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Brussels had opened “broad opportunities for strengthening interpersonal contacts and business ties” with the EU. But he also indicated that Astana would tread carefully, given the existing global geopolitical uncertainty, including the Ukraine war and the Trump administration’s impulsive policymaking.

“The President of Kazakhstan highlighted the importance of demonstrating caution and responsibility in assessing the challenging situations in the world,” stated a presidential communique.

Central Asia was long a diplomatic backwater for the EU, but Brussels’ interest in developing trade relations with regional states spiked following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The EU’s heightened interest is driven in large part by its need to diversify its energy supplies. 

In the wake of the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, the EU and Central Asian states went on to adopt a road map for expanding relations in 2023. That was followed by a groundbreaking investors forum in early 2024, during which the EU pledged a 10-billion euro investment to develop the Trans-Caspian trade network (sometimes referred to as TITR, or the Middle Corridor), reaffirmed this week. Brussels has also offered Central Asian states the prospect of signing enhanced partnership deals. The upcoming Samarkand summit aims to inject fresh momentum into trade relations.

Some regional analysts say the hard part for Brussels in expanding its economic and diplomatic footprint in Central Asia is yet to come. 

“The EU will have to compete for influence not in a vacuum, but in the context of the already established presence of Russia and China – players that clearly do not intend to give up their positions in this historically key region,” wrote regional analyst Merkhat Sharipzhanov in a commentary published by RFE/RL.

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.