The ongoing geopolitical realignment could leave Eastern Europe vulnerable to authoritarian influences and “cast adrift” from the West, warns a new paper published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). 

The paper’s authors warn of the potential reversal of democratic gains achieved since the early 1990s, cautioning that the region may regress to "illiberal regimes; marionette institutions; raging, unchecked oligarchy; and silenced civil societies."

They draw parallels between current developments and historical events, suggesting that recent US diplomatic moves echo the 1945 Yalta Conference, which led to Europe’s division at the start of the Cold War. 

"Trump’s recent overtures to Vladimir Putin resemble a sinister recreation of the 1945 Yalta conference, which preceded the Cold War division of Europe," wrote the authors, ECFR deputy director Vessela Tcherneva and Garvan Walshe, co-founder of electoral integrity NGO Unhack Democracy and founder of democratic tech startup Article 7.

As bne IntelliNews reported recently, the EU is under enormous pressure and faces a real risk of breaking up.

The analysis points specifically to two recent events that exemplify this trend. On February 14, US Vice President JD Vance criticised the European Union at the Munich Security Conference and proposed that Ukraine surrender half its future mineral wealth in exchange for continued US military aid. A week later, a violent mob associated with Bulgaria's pro-Russian, nationalist Vazrazdane (Revival) party attacked the EU’s office in Sofia. These incidents, according to Tcherneva and Walshe, reveal a pattern of escalating tensions within and external pressures on Eastern Europe.

The authors highlight the growing alliance between the American nationalist right and their European counterparts.

“The American nationalist right, led by figures like Vance and businessman-cum-presidential-advisor Elon Musk, has found common cause with its European counterparts,” the paper says. 

"Europe’s right-wing leaders offer the MAGA theorists ideological camaraderie in their culture wars against social liberalism and a bulwark against continued EU efforts to promote democratic governance. Their ultimate goal is not just to weaken Brussels, but to dismantle it altogether.” 

Recent polling by the ECFR indicates that in countries such as Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia, significant portions of the population viewed Donald Trump’s return to the White House as favourable.

The authors interpret this as an indication of ideological alignment, with many in Eastern Europe perceiving Trump's authoritarian style positively. “He projects an image of raw strength, a leader unafraid to dispense with democratic niceties in a dangerous world. Much of the polled populations see Trump’s blunt authoritarianism as, paradoxically, refreshing rather than threatening,” they wrote. 

“Many in Eastern Europe, who feel that the EU and the previous, more liberal US administrations have long relegated them to the periphery of decision-making, do not expect Trump to elevate their social or economic status. But they do expect him to dispense with the hypocrisy and treat them less like second-class citizens,” the paper adds. 

Trump shares a common goal with his allies in the region such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, namely “dismantling the post-1990s’ consensus that liberal democracy represents the pinnacle of governance”, according to the paper. 

“These leaders reject the transatlantic model of checks and balances, the rule of law and institutional accountability as essential to prosperity. Instead, they embrace an illiberal vision in which strongmen rule, unencumbered by judicial oversight or free media, underlined by a predatory nationalism,” the authors write.

They highlight Washington’s position on Ukraine as exposing the true nature of the alliance between Trump and Europe’s nationalist right. The paper points out that during recent ceasefire negotiations in Riyadh, Russian representatives reportedly suggested that the US pull back from Nato’s easternmost members, effectively restoring the alliance’s 1997 boundaries. While the American delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, rejected the idea, their response came with the qualifier: “for now”. 

“A new ‘global Yalta’, comprising Trump, Putin and perhaps Xi, is no longer unthinkable,” says the report. “For eastern Europe, the implications are existential.”

Specifically, countries in the region would be among the hardest hit by Trump’s economic confrontation with Europe, such as the proposed 25% tariff on European steel and aluminium. At first glance, a US government ideologically aligned with Europe’s nationalist right might seem like a natural ally against Brussels. However, Eastern Europe’s far-right movements have placed their trust in a partner whose reliability is questionable. Their goal of breaking free from the perceived constraints of liberal democracy could, in reality, leave them both politically isolated from the EU and militarily vulnerable without firm backing from Washington. 

Moreover, the report says, Eastern European leaders may receive the same transactional treatment from Trump as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did in the Oval Office in March.

To counter these challenges, the authors call for a strengthening of democratic institutions within Eastern Europe. They urge the European Union to take a more assertive role by directly funding NGOs and regional governments, bypassing nationalist administrations where democratic norms are under threat. 

The paper concludes by pointing to the high stakes involved. Should Trump's vision for a divided Europe materialise, the continent's eastern flank may become isolated from the EU and left unprotected by traditional Western alliances. Eastern Europe could face a cycle of instability and regional conflict, reminiscent of past European wars.