A frustrated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for action, not protracted negotiations, on March 22, ahead of the next round of US-Russia ceasefire talks in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

His comments followed on from a scandalous interview of Special Envoy to the Middle East and Ukraine Steve Witkoff by Kremlin sympathetic US journalist Tucker Carlson, where the US diplomat claimed that Russia’s control of the four regions it annexed in 2023 might be legitimate.

The US has made it clear that it will not back Ukraine’s accession to Nato and those dreams are dead. The military alliance is in deep crisis, as all confidence that the US will respect the Article 5 collective security guarantee has evaporated, and it has called for a remake of Nato in the next 5-10 years without the involvement of the US, the Financial Times reported on March 21.

The US has long been committed to containing Europe’s ability to compete, in what is known as the Monroe Doctrine, who believed that the European powers were obligated to respect the Western Hemisphere as the United States' sphere of interest. 

Trump is fully subscribed to Monroe's ideas which is part of Trump’s abandoning the values based order and his pivot to a transactional multipolar world model. At the same time, Ukraine cannot rely on Europe to rescue it as the EU is under enormous pressure and fractures have turned into fissures as it scrambles to respond to the seismic changes in geopolitics that Trump has brought about.

“Just two months into his second presidency, Donald Trump is revolutionizing U.S. foreign policy. His policies will upend world order by destabilizing and ultimately destroying established institutions and patterns of international cooperation,” said Stewart Patrick, a political scientist in a paper for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In the short term, neither Nato nor the EU are able to provide Ukraine the security deal Zelenskiy is so desperate for. In her ReArm speech European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen admitted that Russia is outproducing all of Europe combined, thereby leaving the EU vulnerable to Russian aggression. At the same time, the efforts of EU foreign policy chief and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas to raise first €40bn, and then the far more modest €5bn, to arm Ukraine were both rejected at an EU summit on March 18, vetoed by not only Hungary but also blocked by Spain and Italy.

With Ukraine’s Nato membership now off the table, Zelenskiy has few options other than to return Ukraine to its pre-2014 neutrality and build up the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) as the only real security available in a “Finlandisation” scenario that will effectively freeze the conflict.

 

Zelenskiy calls for an immediate unconditional ceasefire

Zelenskiy seems to be reaching the end of his tether as the Trump administration increasingly appears to be favouring the Putin regime over Ukraine. Ukraine agreed unilaterally to a complete ceasefire on March 11 but Russian President Vladimir Putin only agreed during a 1.5-hour phone call with Trump a week later to stop targeting Ukrainian energy assets and has said that he has conditions that need to be accepted before the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) will stop hostilities. However, reports from Ukraine suggest that attacks on energy facilities continued and Russia’s barrage of Ukrainian positions has not let up.

“Ukraine supported the US call for an unconditional ceasefire. No need for endless meetings – just stop fighting,” Zelenskiy said on March 21.

“First step? Silence in the sky. Trump told me he asked Putin to stop hitting energy and civilian targets.”

Zelenskiy said that Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) was prepared to provide Russia with a list of civilian targets that should be put off limits at the next meeting in KSA. But he added: “If sides want real ceasefire, not just pretend, there must be results.”

In the meantime, Zelenskiy plans to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in the coming week to discuss peacekeepers that may be sent to Ukraine by the emerging “coalition of the willing” being spearheaded by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. He will also discuss possible security deals for after the hostilities end.

“First comes a ceasefire – but Russia keeps breaking it. That’s why teams will meet to discuss monitoring,” Zelenskiy said. “We’ve talked with the UK, US and other partners. Key question: who will watch and enforce the pause before the war is even over?”

However, as bne IntelliNews has reported, there are lots of problems with all three of these ideas. Zelenskiy continued to stress that guarantees are essential to prevent a second Russian invasion with his strong preference for Nato’s backing. He also dismissed the UN as a possible guarantor of peace as it has no military forces and Russia has routinely ignored its resolutions.

“With all respect, the UN won’t stop Putin from invading again. It’s no substitute for real security guarantees. We talk to the UN, but without a mandate to defend Ukraine, it’s not a serious option,” Zelenskiy said. “The UN won’t scare them. They broke every rule already. That’s why we count on a coalition of the willing.”

 

Finlandisation

 

Russia has demanded from the start that Ukraine give up its Nato ambitions, which it agreed to do during the 2022 Istanbul peace deal. Since then Zelenskiy's position has hardened and he has put Nato membership at the core of his victory plan presented to Western partners at the end of last year. However, the new Trump administration has definitely ruled out Ukraine’s membership of Nato, leaving the return to neutrality the only viable option. The Kremlin has already said that they would be satisfied with a neutral Ukraine.

That would put Ukraine into a similar position to Finland, which also fought and lost two wars against the Soviet Union during WWII.

Between 1939 and 1944, Finland and the Soviet Union fought two conflicts that resulted in Finland losing approximately 12% of its territory. Like Ukraine, the conflicts were rooted in Soviet uneasiness over Finland’s strategically important position on the border as well its vast nickel deposits in Petsamo.

The “Winter War” began in November 1939 with a Soviet invasion that was agreed as part of the notorious Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact signed with Nazi Germany. Again, like Ukraine, the Kremlin was confident of a rapid victory, as the Red Army forces massively outnumbered the Finns ten-to-one. Like Ukraine, Finland successfully defended its independence in what became known as the “Miracle of the Winter War,” but was forced to cede a large strip of land on its border that it never got back. The Moscow Armistice, signed on 19 September 1944, ended the hostilities between Finland and the Soviet Union but solidified Finland’s territorial losses, including Petsamo.

With the wars over, Finland adopted a policy of strict neutrality, a strategy that would endure for decades, and that satisfied Moscow. The Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance (known as the YYA Treaty) was signed on 6 April 1948 by President Juho Kusti Paasikivi and stipulated that Finland would remain outside alliances and treat any force threatening the Soviet Union via Finnish territory as an enemy. The passive neutrality became known as the Paasikivi-Kekkonen Doctrine.

The second element to Finland’s efforts to shore up its security was to invest heavily into its army, despite limits on its size agreed in the Paris peace treaty. Today Finland has one of the best equipped, best trained and arguably the most battle-ready force in Europe.

The policy proved successful. Finland maintained its independence and grew economically, particularly through trade with the Soviet Union, which remained heavily sanctioned by Western governments. This mutually beneficial relationship helped Finland achieve rapid economic growth, ironically as it stayed out of the sanctions’ regime as part of the peace settlement deal. It only finally joined Nato last year following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Most of the elements for the Finlandisation of Ukraine are already in place. Ukraine has already been neutral and could change the constitution back, which was changed by Former President Petro Poroshenko to make Nato accession a national ambition in 2014.

As it became increasingly clear that Ukraine would not be admitted to Nato, Zelenskiy has called for creating “our own Nato”, by which he means building up the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to 1.5mn men and investing heavily into the domestic defence industry. Like Finland, Ukraine can already boast one of largest and most effective fighting forces in Europe and both of these things are already well in hand. And like Finland, which has a 1,340-km long border with Russia, the line of contact between the AFU and AFR is about 1,200 km long.

It remains to be seen what comes out of Macron and Starmer’s peacekeeper initiative and whether Europe will offer any real security guarantees, beyond the “security assurances” so far granted, which amount of little more than promises of long-term supplies of weapons and money, but not boots on the ground should Russia launch a second invasion. But full Article 5-like guarantees are unlikely to be forthcoming. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggested that Nato offer Ukraine Article 5 assurances without admitting Ukraine to the organisation. Others have suggested that Ukraine’s Nato membership should be made automatic if Russia invades for a second time. However, all these are half measures and, as bne IntelliNews reported, the Istanbul deal failed as the West, represented by former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, was not prepared to offer Ukraine real Article 5-like security deals that were at the core of the plan.