Standing up to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is now a matter of survival for the EU, wrote Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group in an opinion piece for the Financial Times over the weekend.

"The EU has a long-standing Viktor Orban problem. For many years it has proved to be manageable; now it is life-threatening," Rahman began his post, recalling the geopolitical shifts with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The US President's disengagement from Ukraine, and possibly from NATO, will destabilise the EU. As Washington is unlikely to provide security guarantees Europeans need to deploy troops, the more likely outcome will be ongoing war in Ukraine and the EU will have no other choice but to arm Kyiv.

Rahman recalled cases of obstruction and efforts by Orban to undermine EU unity on Ukraine.

At the March 6 summit, he blocked a joint statement on Ukraine, forcing the remaining 26 leaders to issue a separate declaration. His veto power could also block the renewal of EU sanctions against Russia, which require unanimous renewal in July, and obstruct efforts to seize €200bn in Russian assets held in Europe. The Hungarian leader also enjoys huge leverage over Ukraine's EU accession process, which he argues would destroy the financial stability of the EU.

The author argues that Brussels has a number of tools in its hand to counter Orban's tactics, primarily by leveraging EU funds.

Hungary is set to receive €44.4bn from the bloc's budget in the 2021-2027 budget cycle, but much of it remains frozen due to rule-of-law concerns. Hungary badly needs these funds, as its economy is facing stagflation, dampened growth and rising inflation.

A year ahead of the 2026 election, the prime minister announced phased large tax cuts for mothers, which will boost the budget deficit close to 5% compared to the 3.7% target, "threatening to undermine Hungary's market credibility."

The rise of opposition figure Peter Magyar has shaken the prime minister's "sense of supreme security", with polls showing Tisza Party leading in people’s voting intentions.

European officials are considering repurposing around €30bn in unused cohesion funds for European defence and the new €150bn defence facility may also prove inaccessible for Hungary if access is subject to the same strict conditionality mechanism as in the case of cohesion funds and RRF money.

The bloc even has the nuclear option of suspending Hungary's voting rights by qualified majority if it finds the country in serious breach of democratic principles, the author argues.

"The EU is now facing a Darwinian moment. It will either adapt or die. To protect Ukraine and its Russian frontline states, it must face down Orban. And the sooner the better," Rahman concludes.