US tariffs on EU imports to hit Central and Southeast Europe

US tariffs on EU imports to hit Central and Southeast Europe
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says bloc is considering retaliatory measures. / European Union
By bne IntelliNews April 3, 2025

US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on foreign imports on April 2, including a 20% levy on goods from the European Union, a move expected to negatively affect industries in Central and Southeast Europe.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement imposes a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods and additional country-specific tariffs, with EU imports among those targeted. 

“We are going to charge them 20%,” Trump said in a speech in the White House Rose Garden, accusing the bloc of unfair trade practices.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” the US president added. 

The tariffs are one of the most significant trade barriers imposed by the US since the Great Depression, affecting major economies such as China, Japan, Taiwan and Korea as well as the EU. 

China has been hit with a 34% fee on top of the existing 20% tariff on Chinese imports, while Japan faces a 24% tariff.

The European Commission swiftly condemned the move, warning of its potential to destabilise the global economy. “The global economy will massively suffer, uncertainty will spiral and trigger the rise of further protectionism,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a statement. She vowed that the EU would take a unified approach, adding, “If you take on one of us, you take on all of us.”

Von der Leyen has indicated that the EU is considering retaliatory tariffs on US imports if a resolution is not found through negotiations. 

"We are prepared to respond. We are already finalising a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel. And we are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail," she said. 

"We will also be watching closely what indirect effects these tariffs could have, because we cannot absorb global overcapacity nor will we accept dumping on our market. As Europeans we will always promote and defend our interests and values. And we will always stand up for Europe." 

Politicians react

European leaders have expressed alarm at the tariffs, with calls for a coordinated response. Italy’s rightwing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, often an ideological ally of Trump’s administration, criticised the move as “wrong and not in the interest of either party”. 

“We will do everything we can to work on an agreement with the United States with the aim of averting a trade war that would inevitably weaken the West in favour of other global players,” Meloni added. 

Poland has expressed strong opposition to US President Donald Trump's recent imposition of a 20% tariff on goods manufactured in the European Union. 

Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed the importance of partnership and reciprocity in international trade. "Friendship means partnership. Partnership means really and truly reciprocal tariffs. Adequate decisions are needed,” Tusk said in a post on the social media platform X.

Previously, in late March, Tusk urged Trump to reconsider the tariffs, highlighting that "cooperation is always better than confrontation." Tusk highlighted Poland's commitment to defence, noting the country's defence spending of nearly 5% of its GDP — the most in Nato. Trump has long raved against the European member states of the alliance “freeloading” on the US for defence. 

At the same time, Poland continues to strive to keep the US on its side by strengthening cooperation in areas like defence and energy. Poland picked US companies Westinghouse and Bechtel to build the country’s first nuclear power plant. Warsaw has also signed a $2bn deal with the US for logistical support of Patriot air defence systems, which form the backbone of Poland’s air defence system.

In contrast to Tusk, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto took aim at the EU’s handling of transatlantic trade, blaming Brussels for failing to negotiate a better position. “The European economy and ultimately the European people are drinking the juice of the incompetence of the politicians in Brussels again,” he wrote on Facebook on April 3. 

“The situation is clear after yesterday’s customs announcements by the US president: the European Commission should have negotiated! … They did not negotiate, and instead they made an economic matter an ideological question again.” 

Car industry already targeted

The car industry, which accounts for a large share of exports in countries such as Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia, has already been targeted by US sanctions. On March 27, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of cars and light vehicles . 

As bne IntelliNews reported in March, exporters in Czechia and Slovakia are bracing for the negative impact of the US tariffs since both countries have export-oriented economies with robust automotive industries.

While Germany’s automotive giants are among the most exposed, the tariffs pose a significant threat to smaller EU members reliant on US trade. Slovakia, a key hub for European car manufacturing, stands to be one of the hardest-hit nations, economists warn. In a note published on March 28, ING analysts said that the country’s auto industry, which employs over 250,000 people, could suffer severe disruptions.

“Slovakia – home to several car plants – is most exposed in terms of total US export volume. Notably, 73.2% of its total exports to the US consist of cars and car parts,” said the research note. 

Erste’s Slovak branch Slovenska sporitel’na expects the new US tariffs (25% on cars and 20% on EU goods) to fully impact the Slovak economy and could lead to a loss of 0.5% of GDP this year and 1.5% in 2026 if these stay in place. The Slovak economy was expected to grow by around 2% in 2026 before the imposition of tariffs.

“Escalation in the shape of large-scale trade war means that cumulative reach on the Slovak economy could in the present situation nearly double compared to the tariffs which would impact just the automotive production,” Erste analyst Marián Kočiš was quoted as saying by the Slovak press agency TASR.  

“Currently, the risk of a drop in Slovak GDP is cumulatively on the level of 2.5% to 3%  in the horizon of three years [2025-2027],” Kočiš said.  

Slovakia’s left-right cabinet led by pro-Kremlin populist Prime Minister Robert Fico, who loudly applauds Trump’s overhaul in the US public administration, has largely refrained from commenting on tariffs, but following the 25% tariff announcement the country’s Minister of Economy Denisa Saková recalled that Slovakia will be among the most affected in the EU.

“The automobile industry accounts for approximately 10% of GDP in Slovakia and employs at least 300,000 people,” Saková said.

Slovak EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovic stated on his X account on April 3 that “unjustified tariffs inevitably backfire” and that “we’ll act in a calm, carefully phased, unified way, as we calibrate our response, while allowing adequate time for talks.”

“We won’t stand idly by, should we be unable to reach a fair deal,” Šefčovic also stated, noting that he will hold talks with US counterparts on the following day.  

Market analysts surveyed by Czech Radio highlighted that the country’s suppliers of car particles will be affected by the tariffs more than the car makers.

“Czech suppliers will be under harsh price pressure from final producers, which will significantly lower the profitability of the Czech industry and limit the space for investment and growth of real wages,” the vice president of the Czech Chamber of Commerce, Tomáš Prouza, warned on Twitter, adding that Czech suppliers are facing challenges already and that direct Czech exports to the US are around CZK200bn, while indirect ones through EU intermediaries is “significantly higher”.    

The Czech car industry accounts for approximately 10% of the GDP, and the export-oriented country will be one of the more affected ones.

In January, the Czech Ministry of Finance calculated that 10% tariffs on goods could lead to a slowdown in GDP growth by 0.5%, and Czech Radio noted that 20% tariffs could eat away around 1% of this year’s projected GDP growth of 2%.

Yet, some analysts also urged caution. “The impact on the Czech economy should not really be overwhelming even in the worst case scenario and should be limited to well below 1% of GDP loss,” the head economist at Cyrrus consultancy, Vít Hradil, was quoted as saying by Czech Radio last week.  

Czech investment analyst Ivo Bečvář told Czech Television he expects continued volatility in stock markets given the unpredictability of moves made by the Trump administration. Prague stock exchanges weakened at the end of the business day on April 2 with the PX Index dropping by 0.58 per cent to 2102.97.

Hungary exposed 

Hungary stands to be one of the biggest losers from US tariffs in Europe on the vehicle imports among EU countries, according to a report by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), financial website Portfolio.hu writes. While Canada and Mexico face the most immediate pain, Hungary’s export-driven economy is expected to suffer both short- and long-term consequences. 

The tariffs, effective from April, target vehicles and auto parts under HS code 87, which account for nearly 10% of global trade. The EU, the world’s largest auto exporter, is expected to see an $8bn decline in exports to the US, with Hungary among the most exposed. The study estimates that in the short term, Hungary’s auto exports could shrink by 0.37%, while long-term effects could bring a 0.46% contraction—second only to Slovakia within the EU.

Hungary’s focus on battery production makes it particularly vulnerable to tariffs, local analysts said. 

While the direct effects of the tariffs on Hungary’s economy may be limited, the overall European economic slowdown, especially in Germany, could have a more substantial impact on Hungary’s export-oriented manufacturing sector. Hungary’s direct exports to the US accounted reached 4.1% of its total exports, roughly €6bn in 2024. 

US tariffs could potentially reduce Hungary’s GDP by 0.1-0.2pp this year. This is bad news as the government has recently slashed its growth target from 3.4% to 2.5%, which is still seen by many as overly bullish. The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9-2.9% in late March from 2.6-3.6% three month earlier. 

The relatively low cost of production in Hungary, driven by lower wages and less stringent regulations compared to Germany, could encourage companies to increase capacity in Hungary, thus helping to offset some of the negative effects. 

Romania also faces a major impact, with European Parliament Vice President Victor Negrescu, a member of Romania’s ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD), warning that key export sectors such as auto components, industrial equipment and agri-food goods could face significant setbacks.

“The tariffs announced by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, directly affect Romania. We cannot passively witness this commercial crusade with many victims,” Negrescu wrote on Facebook.

Negrescu pointed out that Romania has a trade surplus with the US amounting to $1bn, making it one of the EU countries most vulnerable to the new tariffs. “The decision of the American administration risks directly hitting Romanian exports from key industries: auto components, industrial equipment, agri-food goods. The effects can translate into job losses and additional economic pressures for our companies,” he wrote. 

Lithuania’s Ministry of Economy and Innovation has already announced measures worth €20mn to help businesses affected by the new tariffs. Economy Minister Lukas Savickas warned in an interview with radio Žinių Radijas that the tariffs could have a direct negative impact of 0.65% on the country’s growth over three to four years.

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