Eastern Europe / Opinion
Kommersant: the oddest sanctions
Over the three years of the war in Ukraine, we have seen a wide range of sanctions adopted against Russia. Some worked; some didn't. But the case of the Russian business newspaper Kommersant is one of the oddest.
COMMENT: The multipolar world has no place for US-Russia imperialism
As the US and Russia collude to revive their cold war dominance, Europe must forge a new path. A revitalised EU could challenge imperial powers and contribute to building a true multipolar order.
McFAUL: What has Ukraine got to thank the US for?
US Vice President JD Vance accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of being ungrateful, but what does Ukraine have to be thankful for to the White House recently, asks former US ambassador to Russia, Mike McFaul.
KSE: Ukrainian public finance in 2024
Ukrainian public finance in 2024 was shaped by three key developments: tax reforms to stabilize revenues, the launch of the ERA mechanism, and debt restructuring to ease the debt burden.
Is Trump attempting a “reverse Nixon” to peel Russia away from China?
Ukraine’s worst nightmare has come true. European leaders have been shocked by US President Donald Trump’s decision to exclude Europe from the ongoing ceasefire talks and his blatant deal-making offers to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
KSE: Most of Russia’s shadow fleet operates outside Western insurance system
Tankers carrying Russian oil are significantly less likely to have IG P&I insurance, finds a new KSE Institute report.
Ruble stabilises but long-term strength depends on sanctions relief
After collapsing last summer to RUB100 to the dollar , the Russian ruble has recovered a lot of ground and current settled at a relatively strong level of RUB90 to the dollar. Further appreciation will depend on sanctions relief, says Rencap.
MACRO ADVISORY: A new hope, but far from Mission Accomplished
The return of Realpolitik. True to his promise, President Trump and his team have actively engaged with the Kremlin and appear to have reached the broad outline of a roadmap towards a peace process.
McFAUL: Why Is Trump trying to lose our new cold war with China?
In 2017, President Trump’s first administration published a historic National Security Strategy, which said we had entered a new era of great power competition with China and Russia. He was right. But now his policies mean we could lose that fight.
COMMENT: Ukraine eyes key role in Azerbaijani gas transit to Europe
Kyiv wants to become a transit hub for Azerbaijani gas after ending Russian gas transport, but plan faces political, logistical and economic hurdles.
COMMENT: Trump should do a deal with OPEC and tighten sanctions further to collapse the Russian economy
As its parting shot, the Biden administration imposed the toughest sanctions yet on Russian oil. The incoming Trump administration is changing tack and talking about negotiations, but should tighten sanctions further and cause Russia real pain.
KSE: The cost of the damage and funding needs to rebuild Ukraine's economy
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has caused massive destruction of civilian infrastructure. This includes a wide variety of assets and sectors, which have suffered at least $500bn in damage.
KSE: the G7’s $50bn ERA loans to provide Ukraine with stable financing for next few years
The G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine mechanism is designed to provide Ukraine with an additional $50bn in financial assistance over 2024-27, and will provide a stable source of funding over the next few years.
ING: EU considering Russian aluminium ban in new sanctions push
The European Union is reportedly considering more import restrictions on Russian aluminium as part of a new package of sanctions targeting Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. But any impact is likely to be limited.
COMMENT: Why is Ukraine struggling to mobilise its citizens to fight?
Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts to replenish its manpower are failing and increasingly threatening Kyiv’s ability to defend itself against the Russian aggression, leading Russian analysts Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko say.
RIDDLE: Sanctions and the Eurasian Economic Union
The first months of 2025 are likely to mark a turning point in the history of sanctions against Russia: after three years of "escalating" but steadily reducing the tempo of sanctions policy. Are sanctions working?
COMMENT: Trump demands Europe import more US LNG, as the EU proposes banning Russian LNG completely. Neither will happen.
US President Donald Trump wants Europe to buy more US gas or face tariffs, and ten EU member states have again called for an end to all Russian imports. Neither of these things are going to happen. Europe remains hooked on Russian gas.
COMMENT: No, Russia is not facing a banking crisis
No, Russia is not on the cusp of a banking credit crisis. That was the conclusion of a paper by Alexandra Prokopenko, a political economy analyst.
COMMENT: With Trump back in the White House, Europe may need to turn to Turkey to strengthen its security
Analyst suggests EU cannot hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.
COMMENT: Armenia makes a strategic turn from Russia towards the West
Moscow realises it is losing Armenia, which has been considered its main ally in the South Caucasus for decades.